Here is the timeline for events in Afghanistan as I see it.
- 2001: Taliban and al Qaida are driven from Afghanistan by Afghan forces with the support of the CIA, a few hundred Special Forces and a whole lot of US provided air power; they take up residence in Pakistan's Waziristan region.
- 2003: US invades Iraq and al Qaida declares Iraq to be the front line of their global Jihad:“the most serious issue today for the whole world is this Third World War that is raging in Iraq.” - Osama bin Laden
Iraq “is now the place for the greatest battle of Islam in this era.” - Ayman al-Zawahiri - 2007: After a stunning defeat in Iraq, al Qaeda retreats to Pakistan and begins to expand their influence and steps up attacks in Afghanistan
- 2008: President Musharraf is ousted in Pakistan and after a while, Pakistan steps up to the plate and begins to seriously attack al Qaida and Taliban in Pakistan: violence increases in Afghanistan
It seems to me what has happened is clear: Al Qaida, after being pushed out of Afghanistan, decided to confront America directly in Iraq and started an insurgency there. America and its allies, after a while, began a counter-insurgency program which ultimate forced al Qaida back to their safe-haven in Pakistan. Pakistan, after a while, began seriously crimping al Qaida's style in Pakistan and now have no where left to go but back to Afghanistan.
And if we are not there to stop them, that's precisely what they will do: move back to Afghanistan.
Yet, the very fact that the US, now joined by Pakistan has degraded al Qaida and the Taliban in Pakistan, forcing them to relocate is now grounds for not doing what it takes to deliver the coup de grace.
Hunted by U.S. drones, beset by money problems and finding it tougher to lure young Arabs to the bleak mountains of Pakistan, al Qaeda is seeing its role shrink there and in Afghanistan, according to intelligence reports and Pakistani and U.S. officials.
So this is half right, because it is very clear from General McChrystal that
In the war assessment he delivered to the Pentagon, he struck a note of urgency, saying that if the troop increases he had recommended were not in place within 12 months, the allied effort risked failure.
If al Qaida and the Taliban are no longer welcome in Iraq, and are forced out of Pakistan, where will our military failure in Afghanistan leave them?
I mean, please, this isn't rocket science.
Right now, at this time we have the chance to catch al Qaida and the Taliban between the hammer of Pakistan and the anvil of of NATO troops in Afghanistan.
If we don't exploit this opportunity we will regret it as much as we now regret not having had the forces in place to eliminate OBL and his crew at Tora Bora in 2001.
Let's instead make the commitment to crush the enemy now when we have the opportunity.
