Pakistan and Civil War

Well, it turned out once again that attempting to negotiate with al Qaeda and the Taliban was wasted effort.

The latest attempt at placating the enemy

...known as the Malakand Accord, calls for the withdrawal of the Pakistani Army from Swat, the release all Taliban prisoners, the withdrawal of any criminal cases against Taliban leaders and fighters, and the imposition of sharia in the Malakand Division, a region that encompasses more than one-third of the Northwest Frontier Province.

But this only emboldened them. Last Saturday

Taliban militants stopped on Saturday a convoy of security forces from moving to Mingora and occupied the residence of a leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-N in Bahrain.

Sources said militants, who had taken positions along the G.T. Road, stopped the convoy near Qamber, a Taliban stronghold, saying the movement of troops towards Swat was a violation of the peace accord.

Incredibly, when the Pakistani government threatened to send troop to retaliate, the Taliban responded by saying that such a move would violate the cease-fire agreement, as if the ambushing of a convoy didn't.

So, to their credit, the Pakistan government did take military action.

Pakistani troops and Taleban militants have clashed in Lower Dir in North West Frontier Province (NWFP), forcing hundreds of civilians to flee.

But, as usual, the effort is only half-assed. And, unfortunately, there is a reason for that

The regular Pakistani Army is sitting out the fight in Dir, just as it has in the majority of the operations in Pakistan’s northwest.

"The Army leadership and General Kiyani [the Chief of Army Staff] in particular fear that battling the Taliban will split the officer corps and the rank and file," a senior US military intelligence official told The Long War Journal. "There is significant support or sympathizers in the military for the Taliban and other Pakistani jihadi organizations. A full on fight [with the Taliban] might force them to take sides."

And the Army is a reflection of the wider society, a significant minority of which supports the Taliban.

As was the case when Musharraf was in power, pushing too hard could precipitate a Civil War in a country that is armed with nuclear weapons. And it is not clear who would win that war.

Of course it could very well be that the country is already in a civil war as the Taliban keep taking ground while the government keeps giving up ground.

Candidate Obama criticized President Bush for not holding Pakistan to account.

I'm wondering if, in 2012, someone will be doing the same to the Obama Administration.

The problem is, of course, the situation is not under the control of the US now or during the previous administration.