On January 31st, the citizens of Iraq will "choose members of ruling councils in 14 of the 18 provinces on Jan. 31. More than 14,000 candidates are running for 444 council seats."
Political freedom is still a new thing in Iraq, and in fact throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Prior to the US invasion, politics was something decided for people, not by them. So these Provincial elections will be another step towards defining how Iraqis want Iraq to be. And the outcome is uncertain.
One thing that seems to be true is that a plurality of Iraqis do not want to mix religion with politics
Iraqi voters prefer secular candidates over those linked to religious groupings, according to an opinion poll published on Monday, less than two weeks before regional elections.
The government-sponsored National Media Centre survey showed 42 percent of eligible voters favour casting ballots for secular nominees, compared with 31 percent for religious politicians. The rest were undecided.
Of the 4,500 people questioned among various faiths and ethnic groups, 68 percent said they were against the use of religious symbols by candidates and parties standing for election.
The much venerated Shi'ite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani wants people to vote, but he doesn't want them to pick a person solely on their religious beliefs
"The religious leadership stands an equal distance away from all candidates in these elections, but it stresses at the same time that voters must, after thorough checks and examination, choose those who are worthy of becoming members of provincial councils," he said.
He said worthy candidates must be efficient, honest and sincere.
Still, the outcome in this regard is uncertain
"There's no competition," boasted Khalid al-Jashani, the candidate of a religious party, as he sat in an office piled with campaign posters. "Here, we have no competition."
The Iranian surrogate troublemaker, Muqtada al-Sadr, is hopeful for a resurgence of his Party.
Followers of anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr hope to win back their position as a major force in this month's regional elections after a string of military and political setbacks last year.
Even modest success in the Jan. 31 vote for ruling provincial councils could position the Sadrists as coalition partners in key southern provinces, where a large number of candidates makes it unlikely any single party can win on its own.
Anything short of that could relegate the once formidable al-Sadr to political irrelevance — something unthinkable a year ago when his fearsome Mahdi Army militia wielded vast power in Shiite areas of Iraq.
"This month's elections will decide who remains in the political arena and who will go into oblivion," said senior Sadrist lawmaker Hassan al-Rubaie. "If we fail to do well, our movement could fragment, and some of its key figures could be lured away by rival blocs trying to destroy us."
One can only hope, but again, it is up to Iraqis to decide.
It seems that whatever the outcome, the vast majority of Iraqis intend to participate in shaping the political future of their country, if for varying reasons.
In the poll, more than 73 percent of those questioned said they expect to participate in the upcoming regional elections.
"Among the provinces Karbala had the highest would-be participation rate with around 85 percent and the lowest was in Najaf," another largely Shiite province, according to Ali Hadi Mohammed, director of the centre.
"Thirty percent of those who said that they would participate said that they are doing it as a national duty, 20 percent are doing it because they have candidates they trust and 19 percent said they will vote in the hope of improving the provincial councils' performances," he added.
But this is still a new Democracy. They have not yet completely replaced physical violence with rhetorical violence something we take for granted here when we complain about our nasty political campaigns: at least no one is getting killed in the process.
Still, two dead candidates in a field of 14 thousand is pretty good given Iraq's history, and the history of the Middle East.
And they have George Bush, and the American people, to thank for this opportunity.
