Daveed Gartenstein-Ross writing at the Counter Terrorism Blog notes that President Musharraf was not the only loser when Pakistan held successful elections last month
Pakistan's February 18 elections signaled a dramatic shift in Islamist parties' fortunes in the North-West Frontier Province. In the 2002 general election, religious parties won 67 seats in the 99-seat provincial assembly, while in 2008 they won only nine seats. Some commentators have attached great strategic significance to these results. For example, Heritage Foundation research fellow Lisa Curtis wrote that "[p]erhaps the most important outcome" of Pakistan's elections "was the victory of a secular Pashtun party in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) over religious parties sympathetic to the Taliban." The Christian Science Monitor declared that the victorious Awami National Party (ANP) is "expected to marshal all the province's resources - police, politics, and the law - against extremism."
And the result has been felt in Afghanistan
The troubles in Pakistan’s federally administered tribal areas across the border are being felt in Afghanistan. There have been fewer Taliban trying to infiltrate.
“The Taliban are very opportunistic,” the general said. “They flow and move where the opportunities present themselves. With all of the things going on inside Pakistan right now, that has had an impact in what is going on along the border.”
But in general, how far have we come in Afghanistan and how far do we need to go? SGM Curtis L. Regan CJTF-82, CJ-3 Bagram, Afghanistan gives us a clue
So where are we? Six years ago, there was no Afghanistan government, there was no Afghanistan President, there was no Afghanistan Army, there was no Afghanistan police force, and there were no Afghanistan border patrols. Criminals did not go in front of duly appointed judges in modern courtrooms, and convicted felons did not go to prison. Afghanistan children did not go to school, young adults did not go to college, and farmers’ produce did not travel to market. Commerce did not flow, engineering projects did not get off the ground, and corruption reigned supreme.
As a combined joint and multi-national task force, we are intent on increasing interoperability with the fledgling Afghan National Security Forces, fostering regional military professionalism within the Afghan National Army, and demonstrating by example the role of the Afghan National Police in a democracy. Reciprocal military-to-military contact is the primary method of executing these goals. The reciprocity concept means all sides – US Forces, host nation forces, and international partners – participate and benefit.
This success is especially critical in the company of an unprecedented media presence. The media alone can make the difference between success and failure, particularly in elongated military operations and global campaigns like the ones we are currently engaging in Iraq and Afghanistan. And all at a time when our Allies must trust and have confidence in our efforts - Once this trust is violated, this relationship becomes ineffective.
Early in this war the enemy shifted from conducting conventional operations to pursuing an insurgent strategy to topple the newly established political system and discredit the duly elected government of Afghanistan. We therefore adapted a strategy to effectively meet this threat. Counter-insurgency operations are complex and require a deep understanding of the enemy and his intent. Additionally, counterinsurgency operations require patience, perseverance, initiative, and discipline to defeat the enemy. Inherent to this success is the essence of our campaign objectives and counter-insurgency operational activities.
Sustained Armed Forces presence in a region promotes a secure environment in which diplomatic and economic programs can flourish. This sustained presence of strong, capable ground forces is the most visible sign of US commitment – to allies and adversaries alike. But presence alone does not defeat an insurgency, regardless of the length of time and manpower committed to the endeavor. Determining the military actions and civil activities necessary to achieve the desired political end-state is quite challenging in counter-insurgency operations. Success takes years and requires perseverance and a long term commitment to solving the real problems. Conversely, daily operations require rapid and aggressive responses to changing conditions based on localized conflict from competing groups.
Where do we go from here and how do we succeed in the end? A simple but effective Counter-insurgency strategy executed deliberately and consistently over a protracted period of time, with professional poise and steadfast determination from all elements of security and support.
But as SGM Regan points out we need more
The Nation is best served when Congress remains focused toward concrete resolution of all armed conflict. The effectiveness of the Military’s collective efforts overseas speaks well for the institutional soul of today’s Armed Forces. Our values and the laws governing warfare teach us to respect human dignity, maintain our honesty, and do what is right. Adherence to our values distinguishes us from terrorists, insurgents, and other lawless factions. The ultimate success of this Counter-Insurgency Operation depends on maintaining the obligatory value systems in all that we do, and that we continue to occupy the moral high ground, be it with prisoners of war, suspected enemy personnel, or our own countrymen.
The necessity and required outcome of this conflict remain unchanged. Strong resolute men must remain steadfast in the prosecution of terrorists and insurgent forces and a strong, capable, self-reliant Nation must follow in the wake of fanatical tyranny. Evil must be eradicated, and ideology must be constrained to lawful and legitimate means of debate. Free people must be endowed with the choice of personal religious practices, the pursuit of happiness, and the rewards that come with hard work, creative thinking, and personal expressions of excellence. Coercion, abuse of power, and tyrannical submission of individual rights and liberties cannot go unchecked.
Yeah, but are our political institutions up to this task?
Our military is...
