The Cool Blue Blog

Cartoon war

Osama bin Laden has released a new audio tape on the 5th anniversary of the beginning of the war in Iraq. And even though it was released on this landmark occasion, he made no mention of Iraq. Of course, he may have made this tape to "celebrate" the Prophet's birthday.

But I am not convinced the Prophet is appreciative of the mass-murderers sentiment.

Bin Laden did mention the Danish cartoons

This talk of mine is to you and concerns the insulting drawings and your negligence in spite of the opportunity presented to take the necessary measures to prevent their being repeated.

Of course he's talking about those Danish cartoons of which this is one

Now to me, this is not a statement about Muhammed, it is a statement about the debasement of the Prophet propagated by al Qaida an it's ilk. But bin Laden says that to make such a point is immoral. What's more, he states that the printing of these cartoons are worse than the "war crimes" he believes we have propagated while freeing people of the Taliban and Saddam

Although our tragedy in your killing of our women and children is a very great one, it paled when you went overboard in your unbelief and freed yourselves of the etiquettes of dispute and fighting and went to the extent of publishing these insulting drawings. This is the greater and more serious tragedy, and reckoning for it will be more severe.

Right. And so what does the Supreme Contemplator of Mass Murder and Perpetrator of Misogyny have planned for al Qaida blasphemers? It's hard to say, but he warns us to knock off making fun of Islamists

In closing, I tell you: if there is no check on the freedom of your words, then let your hearts be open to the freedom of our actions. And it is amazing and to make light of others that you talk about tolerance and peace at a time when your soldiers perpetrate murder even against the weak and oppressed in our countries.

Right. Weak and oppressed. Well the weak and oppressed rose up against bin Landen and his minions from hell and, as Bush put it yesterday

In Iraq, we are witnessing the first large-scale Arab uprising against Osama bin Laden, his grim ideology, and his murderous network.  And the significance of this development cannot be overstated.

Perhaps this is why bin Laden is so upset. And perhaps it is pertinent that the two events; the invasion of Iraq and Mohammed's birthday, are congruent just now.

I know that Arabic contains the concept of irony, but I am not sure that the scaled-down version used by Islamists does. Because if it did, it would probably be horrified.

To bin Laden, making fun him as a debaser of his religion is an act of war

Then came your publishing of these drawings, which came in the framework of a new Crusade in which the Pope of the Vatican has played a large, lengthy role. And all of that is confirmation on your part of the continuation of the war

But there were no such cartoons in existence when he declared war on the United States back in 1996.

If bin Laden wants to fight a war over cartoons, well, fine. But we are going to do our best to fight on our terms but on his soil.

may our mothers be bereaved of us if we fail to help the Messenger of Allah (peace and blessings of Allah be upon him)

I second that emotion, because you will fail.

Point/Counterpoint with Hillary

Senator Clinton gave a speech on St Patrick's Day and in it she gave some thoughts on how she would handle Iraq. On that same day a poll on the attitudes of Iraqi's, commissioned by the BBC and ABC news, was released Let's compare and contrast the two along with other commentary and news items. Let's do a Point/Counterpoint.

Point

Hillary's Remarks at The George Washingon University, 17 Match 2008

Fortunately, ten months from now we will have a new president, and a new opportunity to change course in Iraq. Therefore, the critical question is how can we end this war responsibly and restore America’s leadership in the world? It won't be easy. There is no magic wand to wave. Bringing our troops home safely will take a president who is ready to be Commander-in-Chief on day one, a president who knows our military and has earned their respect. Bringing lasting stability to the region will take a president with the strength and determination, the knowledge and confidence to bring our troops home; to rebuild our military readiness, to care for our veterans, and to redouble our efforts against al-Qaeda. If you give me the chance, I will be that president.

Counterpoint

From the ABC/BBC poll of Iraqis

Well under half, 38 percent, say the United States should leave now, down from a peak 47 percent in August. One reason is that Iraqis are divided on what might follow U.S. withdrawal; 46 percent think it would make security better, but the rest say it would make security worse or leave it as it is now. Those who think immediate withdrawal would improve security are twice as likely to support it.

Point

Senator Clinton

I will start by facing the conditions on the ground in Iraq as they are, not as we hope or wish them to be. President Bush points to the reduction in violence in Iraq last year and claims the surge is working. Now, I applaud any decrease in violence. That is always good news. But the point of the surge was to give the Iraqis the time and space for political reconciliation. Yet today, the Iraqi government has failed to provide basic services for its citizens. They have yet to pass legislation ensuring the equitable distribution of oil revenues, yet even to pass a law setting the date of provincial elections.

Counterpoint

News item

Iraq's presidential council withdrew its objection to a provincial elections law on Wednesday, giving a major boost to U.S.-backed efforts to promote national reconciliation on the fifth anniversary of the war.

The move came two days after Vice President Dick Cheney visited Baghdad to press Iraqi leaders to overcome their differences and take advantage of a lull in violence to make political progress.

Corruption and dysfunction is rampant, and last week General Petraeus himself conceded that no one, in either the U.S. government or the Iraqi government, feels that there has been sufficient progress by any means in the area of national reconciliation.

News Item

The Iraqi cabinet approved a draft of a law today that would set guidelines for countrywide distribution of oil revenues and foreign investment in the immense oil industry.

The endorsement marked a major agreement among the country’s ethnic and sectarian political blocs on one of Iraq’s most divisive issues.

True this law hasn't been approved or enacted as of yet, but it is a sticky problem and progress is being made.

Point

Senator Clinton

So by the middle of this summer when the additional surge forces have been sent home, we'll be right back at square one with 130,000 or more troops on the ground in Iraq. That President Bush seems to want to keep as many troops there after the surge as before and says that doing otherwise would endanger our progress is a clear admission that the surge has not accomplished its goals. Meanwhile, as we continue to police Iraq’s civil war, the threats to our national security, our economy, and our standing in the world continue to mount.

Counterpoint

There is no civil war.

From the ABC/BBC poll we learn that only 3% of Iraqi's say the single biggest problem facing them is war,civil war, or unrest.

Fifty-five percent of Iraqis say things in their own lives are going well, well up from 39 percent as recently as August. More, 62 percent, rate local security positively, up 19 points. And the number who expect conditions nationally to improve in the year ahead has doubled, to 46 percent

Point

Senator Clinton

Taking into consideration the long-term costs of replacing equipment and providing medical care for troops and survivors' benefits for their families, the war in Iraq could ultimately cost well over $1 trillion. That is enough to provide health care for all 47 million uninsured Americans and quality pre-kindergarten for every American child, solve the housing crisis once and for all, make college affordable for every American student, and provide tax relief to tens of millions of middle class families.

Counterpoint

Except this kind of spending in Iraq will end. Providing new entitlements for 47 million Americans will not. Hillary is suggesting that she can use this money to provide these entitlements and give a tax cut? How will that work? And what happens if another war comes along where we have to spend $1 trillion. Where does that money come from?

Point

Senator Clinton

And don't just take it from me. At his confirmation hearing, Admiral Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that without national political reconciliation, no amount of troops in no amount of time will make much of a difference.

Counterpoint

So now that the national political reconciliation laws have been passed, everything is fine again.

Point

Senator Clinton

Each passing month we stay in Iraq gives the Iraqi government more time to avoid the hard decisions on how to split the oil money and how to share political power. Senator McCain and president bush claim withdrawal is defeat. Well, let's be clear, withdrawal is not defeat. Defeat is keeping troops in Iraq for 100 years.

Counterpoint

So the fact that we are still in Germany and Japan means we lost WWII? Oh. That's right. It hasn't been 100 years yet.

And according to Iraqi's

Moreover, despite their antipathy, big majorities see a continued role for the United States. From two-thirds to 80 percent of Iraqis support future U.S. efforts conducting security operations against al Qaeda or foreign jihadis in Iraq; providing military training, weapons and reconstruction aid; and assisting in security vis-à-vis Iran and Turkey. The most popular of these is a U.S. role confronting al Qaeda.

Future role for U.S.: % support
Security vs. al Qaeda in Iraq: 80%
Training/weapons for Iraqi army: 76%
Reconstruction aid: 73%
Security vs. Iran: 68%
Security vs. Turkey: 66%

But what I didn't hear from Senator Clinton was how she feels about the Iraqi people she wants to abandon.

Actionable Intelligence

According to the Associated Press

A missile strike near the Afghan border destroyed the house of a suspected militant leader today, killing at least 20 people, witnesses and state-run Pakistan Television said.

Seven missiles were fired in the strike in the tribal area of South Waziristan, the television report said. The Pakistani military said five or six explosions were heard near Wana, the main town in South Waziristan.

Local tribesman Rahim Khan told the Associated Press missiles were fired by an unmanned drone. At least two hit and destroyed the home of a local militant leader and Taliban sympathizer who goes by the single name Noorullah, Khan said.

Only U.S.-led coalition forces are known to have unmanned drones operating in the region. Coalition forces based in neighboring Afghanistan have also launched attacks inside the Pakistani border in the past.

Khan said the house — a huge, fortress-like compound — was known as a hub for visiting foreign militants.

Back on March 12th, there was another powerful hit

A decisive Coalition strike against a high-level meeting of Taliban-linked insurgents on March 12 took place one and a half kilometers inside Pakistani territory, US military officials have confirmed to The Long War Journal. Several precision-guided munitions struck a compound owned by a senior member of the Haqqani Network, a powerful Taliban splinter group that is based in the Pakistani tribal state of North Waziristan. The strike occurred shortly after multiple intelligence sources confirmed the presence of the group’s upper echelon inside the compound. Several other high-level Haqqani commanders, including Sirajjudin Haqqani, had planned to attend this meeting, intelligence sources confirmed.

At 9:40 PM local time, US officials declared the group posed an imminent threat to forces inside Afghanistan and the call to strike the compound was made. After the orders were given to launch a coordinated strike, fixed-wing and rotary-wing air support along with Predator surveillance and reconnaissance began scanning likely insurgent attack positions inside Afghanistan. US military officials confirmed no women or children had been seen in the targeted North Waziristan compound or in any structures near it over the last five days.

Nearly four hours later, a salvo of indirect fire targeting the compound hit its mark, completely obliterating the building and killing an unknown number of people inside of it. Several insurgents working sentry posts around the compound were observed by aerial surveillance leaving the area on foot. Initial intelligence reports on March 12 indicated three “high-level Haqqani network commanders” were killed and that “many” Chechen fighters also died in the blast.

And in February

Pakistani and US intelligence are attempting to sort out the names of the al Qaeda and Taliban operatives killed in yesterday's airstrike in Azam Warzak, South Waziristan. Initial reports indicated Arabs and fighters from Central Asia were killed in the operation. One report indicates an "al Qaeda fugitive from Egypt" was among those killed, sparking rumors that Ayman al Zawahiri was the target of the strike.

South Waziristan Taliban commander Mullah Nazir, who is often characterized as a "pro-government" Taliban leader, appears to be the center of the storm. "Sources said that the militants belonged to the Abu Hamza group whose leader was said to be a follower of local militant commander Maulvi Nazir," Dawn reported. The attack occurred at the home of Shero Wazir, a follower of Nazir "who had rented it out to an Arab."

"A large number of Arabs and other foreigners had been living and doing business in the area for years with local tribal names," sources told Dawn. Nazir denied foreign al Qaeda were present in his territory, and instead claimed Afghans were occupying the home.

Back in August of '07, Barack Obama said that if he were President

"If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President [Pervez] Musharraf won't act, we will,"

I guess that means he will be praising Bush any moment now....

Marine Corps Staff Sergeant Gerald M. Flores

A key component to success in Iraq is enabling an expertly trained Iraqi army and police force. Marine Corps Staff Sergeant Gerald M. Flores’ role as a combat advisor has been instrumental in this task.

During Flores’ second Iraq tour, from December 2006 to December 2007, he was placed with various brigades in the Iraqi Army in Ramadi, one of the most dangerous cities in Anbar province. Once considered a "lost province" because of a fervent insurgency, Anbar needed a well-trained Iraqi force. To achieve improved security and lay the foundation of a lasting peace required a cultural diplomat in a Marine uniform – Gerald Flores.

Taking charge of some 100 Iraqi troops, the hardened Marine learned how to balance the Corps’ grueling training schedule with local customs, like repeated daily prayer. His leadership helped the two cultures "meet in the middle" and he turned a mix of "old army" and green recruits into a combat-effective unit.

In one harrowing operation, Flores was brought in to advise a disorganized and fatigued Iraqi company. The company came under fire, taking many casualties and becoming combat ineffective. Flores took charge in the face of enemy machine gun, small-arms, and sniper fire and rallied the unit. He organized an effective defense, allowing the Iraqis to resist the attack and emerge from the battle with newfound skill and confidence. During later operations in the Malaab district of Ramadi, Flores reinforced an "overwhelmed" Iraqi force and aided in the "clear and hold" mission in this former insurgent enclave.

For accumulating over 250 combat patrols as an embedded advisor in Iraqi units, directly training over 300 Iraqi troops, and his able command under fire, Flores was awarded the Bronze Star.

Back in the United States "looking at the big picture," Flores considered the contribution made by his team of Marine combat advisors as "awesome." The security gains made by Iraqi and Coalition Forces due to the troop surge and "Sunni Awakening" were like "night and day" he said. Exemplifying the character of a Marine, he reflected: "We were all out there as a team… As a team, we did a whole lot."

                   

He didn't inhale

From ABC in Chicago

Senator Obama said he was never in church when Reverend Wright made any of the incendiary remarks that have been made public in recent days.

Desperate in Iraq

As the election season begins to get into full swing, a new poll shows that America is optimistic about Iraq

American public support for the military effort in Iraq has reached a high point unseen since the summer of 2006, a development that promises to reshape the political landscape.

According to late February polling conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 53 percent of Americans — a slim majority — now believe “the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals” in Iraq. That figure is up from 42 percent in September 2007.

The percentage of those who believe the war in Iraq is going “very well” or “fairly well” is also up, from 30 percent in February 2007 to 48 percent today.

Polls also indicate, as a result, that the economy has replaced Iraq as the most pressing issues to voters.

This is bad news for al-Qaida in Iraq. They want the election be be about Iraq and they want the pro-war candidate to lose. But it is hard when things are going so badly for them.

al-Qaeda commander in northern Iraq Abu-Turab Al-Jaza'iri gave an interview to the daily newspaper Al-'Arab. He had a lot to say about the current situation in Iraq

Asked about Al-Qaeda's position in Iraq, with reference to the U.S. announcement that it had been paralyzed, Al-Jaza'iri replied: "…[The Islamic Republic of Iraq] is alive, striking, bombing, and planning to attack various military targets belonging to the Crusaders and to betrayers of Islam, i.e. the Shi'ites and Kurds who have joined the occupier…

"It is true that we have lost several cities and have been forced to withdraw from others, after a large number of [Sunni] tribal leaders betrayed Islam and when their tribe members joined forces against us. However, we are still fighting, and the 'paralysis' mentioned by the Crusaders is true only for some of the regions. [Besides,] it is common knowledge that any war always involves advance and retreat, so that [even] in those regions I wouldn't call our position 'paralysis,' but rather 'the [changing] conditions of the war.'"

Al-Jaza'iri added: "…I do not want to paint a false picture: Our position is very difficult, but we are fighting, and will continue to do so…"

But they have plans to make Iraq the top story for the election yet again

On the change in Al-Qaeda's strategy and the continuation of attacks, Al-Jaza'iri said: "It is clear that the strategy [of capturing cities and turning them into Al-Qaeda bases] has failed, so today we are fighting a guerilla war, or, as some call it, 'street fighting.' The efficacy of this [strategy] has been proven in various contexts. We have been instructed to focus our attacks on targets that are strategically and morally important to our enemies, on the eve of the U.S. election campaign."

Yes; al Qaida is very aware of the elections in the US and they know the only way they will win is via the media and public opinion

Are insurgents in Iraq emboldened by voices in the news media expressing dissent or calling for troop withdrawals from Iraq? The short answer, according to a pair of Harvard economists, is yes…

The paper “Is There an ‘Emboldenment’ Effect in Iraq? Evidence From the Insurgency in Iraq” concludes the following:

* In the short term, there is a small but measurable cost to open public debate in the form of higher attacks against Iraqi and American targets.

* In periods immediately after a spike in “antiresolve” statements in the American media, the level of insurgent attacks increases between 7 and 10 percent.

* Insurgent organizations are strategic actors, meaning that whatever their motivations, religious or ideological, they will respond to incentives and disincentives.

Al Qaida is very aware of these facts as well:

[Abu-Turab Al-Jaza'iri] continued: "...It is the type of attacks and the way they are planned that will be changed. Accordingly, we will be focusing on operations that cause the maximum pain and bewilderment to the enemy. This [shift] will open a new page in the fighting, which you will notice on the fifth anniversary of the occupation of Iraq..."

Addressing Iraq's Sunnis, Al-Jaza'iri said: "The next few months will prove decisive, and by Allah! We have prepared for this - we have humiliated the Crusaders, and have made their blood flow in the streets... And what is to come will be even worse and more bitter. Therefore, I say to those who claim that we have failed, or are paralyzed...: You will receive our answer in the next few weeks..."

That interview was on February 12th. In the last week or so we have seen some increase in attacks. A car bomb on March 13th in a commercial district of central Baghdad killed 13 and wounded 57. Last Thursday, two massive bombs killed 68 people in Baghdad's Karradah neighborhood. On March 3, two car bombings killed 24 people in the capital. Two days ago three American soldiers were killed in a roadside bombing north of Baghdad on Monday, bringing to eight the number of troops who died that day. The last time so many U.S. military personnel were killed in Iraq was Sept. 10, when 10 died.

The U.S. military says al-Qaeda is attempting to score mass-casualty attacks to divert attention and resources away from the northern city of Mosul. The U.S. military is pressing an offensive there in what it describes as al-Qaeda's last urban stronghold.

That and to get back in the news and make Iraq a top issue in the elections once again.

But coalition forces continue to do damage to al Qaida

According to Bill Roggio coalition forces have killed or captured a number of top leaders as part of their assault on the last remaining stronghold in Iraq: Mosul

• Abu Yasir al Saudi: Also known as Jar Allah, Yasir entered Iraq in August 2007 and rose through the ranks to lead al Qaeda operations in southeastern Mosul. He was killed in an airstrike along with Hajji Hamdan in Mosul on Feb. 27. He trained and fought in Afghanistan prior to entering Iraq.

• Hajji Hamdan: He led al Qaeda's anti-aircraft teams in Mosul and the surrounding areas. He was killed in an airstrike along with Abu Yasir al Saudi in Mosul on Feb. 27. Hamdan was also a Saudi national.

• Abu Salim: An al Qaeda cell leader in Mosul who coordinated the movement of foreign terrorists into the Mosul region. He was killed on an unspecified date inside Mosul. Salim was also a Saudi national.

• Manhal Fadil Salih Ahmad: An al Qaeda cell leader in Abu Yasir al Saudi's network in southeastern Mosul behind attacks on US and Iraqi forces. Ahmad was captured on an unspecified date.

• Nawaf Latfi Rida Jarrah: The commander of Ansar al Islam's network in Mosul. He is behind attacks on US and Iraqi forces. Jarrah was captured on an unspecified date. Ansar al Islam is also known as Ansar al Sunnah, and has its roots in the Kurdish regions. Abu Abdullah al Hassan bin Mahmoud, the leader of Ansar al Islam, has close ties to Osama bin Laden. The terror group adheres to al Qaeda's radical Salafi ideology. Military commander Abu Abdullah al Shafi has admitted to carrying out operations with al Qaeda. Ansar al Islam has refused to subordinate itself to al Qaeda in Iraq due to issues with al Qaeda in Iraq's foreign leadership, several US military intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal.

• Ammar Rashid Barbuti Hassan: The emir of al Qaeda in Tikrit. Hassan also facilitated the movement of foreign terrorists into the region as well as made and transported weapons for attacks against US and Iraqi forces. Hassan was captured on an unspecified date.

• Fannr Mubarak Muhammad Farhan: An al Qaeda foreign terrorist and weapons facilitator, trainer, and jailer in Tikrit. He was captured in Tikrit.

• Najm Abdallah Abbas Mahdi: An al Qaeda cell leader that coordinated and carried out car bomb attacks and assassinations in Baghdad. He also moved weapons and explosives into southern Baghdad province. Mahdi was captured in Baghdad on an unspecified date.

• Jasim Abdallah Salih Shibil: Al Qaeda's leader in Sharqat. He had previously operated in Bayji. Shibil was captured in Sharqat on an unspecified date.

• Rushdi Hamid Shihab Ahmad: Al Qaeda's military leader for the Karkh district in Baghdad behind car bomb attacks in western and southern Baghdad. Ahmad was captured in Baghdad on an unspecified date.

• Abu Hassan: Al Qaeda’s deputy leader for Diyala province who led the regional car bomb network. Hassan was killed in Baqubah on an unspecified date.

This is al Qaida's Tet Offensive. Can they win by losing like the North Vietnamese did?

It all depends on our focus and resolve.

Pork lover

Senator John McCain has been a porkbuster for a long time. Recently, he and Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina crafted a bill that would place a one year moratorium on earmarks; otherwise known as pork.

Recent converts to porkbusting Senators Clinton and Obama have decided to be election-year cosponsors of this bill.

The Council for Citizens Against Government Waste (CCAGW) today participated in a rally to support the amendment being offered by Sens. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) to the 2009 budget resolution that will impose a year-long moratorium on congressional earmarks.  The co-sponsors include three Senate Democrats, Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), and Barack Obama (D-Ill.), along with five other Senate Republicans.

However, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid disagrees with his parties nominees for President

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who strongly opposes the DeMint amendment, said Wednesday he wasn’t sure whether there is enough opposition to defeat the moratorium this week...

“As we look back in history, the Founding Fathers would be cringing to hear people talking about eliminating earmarks,” Reid said, noting that the Founders dictated in the Constitution that all spending should originate in Congress, not the executive branch.

But Ed Morrissey writing over at Hot Air points out precisely what Founding Father Thomas Jefferson thought of pork

Thomas Jefferson made a similar prediction in a letter to James Madison dated March 6, 1796, challenging Madison’s proposition for improvements to roads used in a system of national mail delivery. Jefferson wrote:

Have you considered all the consequences of your proposition respecting post roads? I view it as a source of boundless patronage to the executive, jobbing to members of Congress & their friends, and a bottomless abyss of public money. You will begin by only appropriating the surplus of the post office revenues; but the other revenues will soon be called into their aid, and it will be a scene of eternal scramble among the members, who can get the most money wasted in their State; and they will always get most who are meanest.

What does that say about Senator Reid?

Quarterly report

Iraq Report Cites Security Gains, Need for Political, Economic Progress

Wednesday, 12 March 2008 By Donna Miles
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON — The latest quarterly report on the situation in Iraq notes continued security improvements and limited but important political, economic and diplomatic progress that must expand to preserve fragile security gains. 

The Defense Department released its “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” report today, the latest in quarterly reports to Congress, covering the period from December to February. 

The report notes that violence is down throughout much of Iraq. Deaths from ethno-sectarian violence are down 90 percent, and civilian and coalition deaths by more than 70 percent since the June report. 

The bulls-eye for attacks has shifted from Anbar province, which has seen a dramatic 90 percent drop in violence since January, to Ninewa and Diyala provinces, the report notes. 

It cites a variety of factors contributing to the drop in violence: the coalition’s focus on securing the population; progress against al Qaeda in Iraq and other extremists and criminal groups; and growing rejection of these groups by the Iraqi people, among them. 

The report also points to the strength of the tribal “awakening” and “Sons of Iraq” movements working to stop violence, limitations on counter-Iraqi meddling by Iran, a crackdown on foreign-fighter networks, and Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr’s ceasefire order to his followers as helping reduce violence. 

Meanwhile, Iraqi security forces continue making gains, gradually assuming more responsibility for maintaining law and order and promoting stability, the report says. It credits coalition assistance with enabling the Iraqi Defense Ministry to generate 135 army battalions that are conducting operations at varying capability levels. Another 37 combat battalions and two special operations battalions are planned or have started to form. 

The Iraqi police are making headway, too, with Iraq’s Interior Ministry expanding its training facilities from four to 17 over the past year and in the midst of implementing its first annual strategic plan. 

As a side benefit of their improved capabilities, both the Defense and Interior ministries are beginning to coordinate better, creating a synergy that’s enabling the Iraqi government its first opportunity to conduct long-term planning for developing its security forces, the report notes. 

The report also identifies progress on the political, economic and diplomatic fronts. New strides have been taken in reconciliation at every level, and the Iraqi economy is growing. Long-time, sustained progress, it said, will depend on Iraq’s ability to address the complex issues associated with key political and economic objectives. 

“Iraq has seen important security gains in recent months. However, these security gains cannot be taken for granted, and there is tough, challenging work ahead,” the report concludes. “Further progress will depend on the continued ability of Iraqi leaders to capitalize on the hard-fought gains achieved by the coalition and Iraqi forces and other courageous members of Iraqi society who are dedicated to peace.”

The full report issued to Congress can be found here(pdf)

Progress against the Taliban

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross writing at the Counter Terrorism Blog notes that President Musharraf was not the only loser when Pakistan held successful elections last month

Pakistan's February 18 elections signaled a dramatic shift in Islamist parties' fortunes in the North-West Frontier Province. In the 2002 general election, religious parties won 67 seats in the 99-seat provincial assembly, while in 2008 they won only nine seats. Some commentators have attached great strategic significance to these results. For example, Heritage Foundation research fellow Lisa Curtis wrote that "[p]erhaps the most important outcome" of Pakistan's elections "was the victory of a secular Pashtun party in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) over religious parties sympathetic to the Taliban." The Christian Science Monitor declared that the victorious Awami National Party (ANP) is "expected to marshal all the province's resources - police, politics, and the law - against extremism."

And the result has been felt in Afghanistan

The troubles in Pakistan’s federally administered tribal areas across the border are being felt in Afghanistan. There have been fewer Taliban trying to infiltrate.

“The Taliban are very opportunistic,” the general said. “They flow and move where the opportunities present themselves. With all of the things going on inside Pakistan right now, that has had an impact in what is going on along the border.”

But in general, how far have we come in Afghanistan and how far do we need to go? SGM Curtis L. Regan CJTF-82, CJ-3 Bagram, Afghanistan gives us a clue

So where are we? Six years ago, there was no Afghanistan government, there was no Afghanistan President, there was no Afghanistan Army, there was no Afghanistan police force, and there were no Afghanistan border patrols.  Criminals did not go in front of duly appointed judges in modern courtrooms, and convicted felons did not go to prison. Afghanistan children did not go to school, young adults did not go to college, and farmers’ produce did not travel to market.  Commerce did not flow, engineering projects did not get off the ground, and corruption reigned supreme.

As a combined joint and multi-national task force, we are intent on increasing interoperability with the fledgling Afghan National Security Forces, fostering regional military professionalism within the Afghan National Army, and demonstrating by example the role of the Afghan National Police in a democracy.  Reciprocal military-to-military contact is the primary method of executing these goals.  The reciprocity concept means all sides – US Forces, host nation forces, and international partners – participate and benefit.

This success is especially critical in the company of an unprecedented media presence.  The media alone can make the difference between success and failure, particularly in elongated military operations and global campaigns like the ones we are currently engaging in Iraq and Afghanistan.  And all at a time when our Allies must trust and have confidence in our efforts - Once this trust is violated, this relationship becomes ineffective.

Early in this war the enemy shifted from conducting conventional operations to pursuing an insurgent strategy to topple the newly established political system and discredit the duly elected government of Afghanistan.  We therefore adapted a strategy to effectively meet this threat.  Counter-insurgency operations are complex and require a deep understanding of the enemy and his intent.  Additionally, counterinsurgency operations require patience, perseverance, initiative, and discipline to defeat the enemy.  Inherent to this success is the essence of our campaign objectives and counter-insurgency operational activities.

Sustained Armed Forces presence in a region promotes a secure environment in which diplomatic and economic programs can flourish. This sustained presence of strong, capable ground forces is the most visible sign of US commitment – to allies and adversaries alike.  But presence alone does not defeat an insurgency, regardless of the length of time and manpower committed to the endeavor.  Determining the military actions and civil activities necessary to achieve the desired political end-state is quite challenging in counter-insurgency operations.  Success takes years and requires perseverance and a long term commitment to solving the real problems.  Conversely, daily operations require rapid and aggressive responses to changing conditions based on localized conflict from competing groups.

Where do we go from here and how do we succeed in the end? A simple but effective Counter-insurgency strategy executed deliberately and consistently over a protracted period of time, with professional poise and steadfast determination from all elements of security and support.

But as SGM Regan points out we need more

The Nation is best served when Congress remains focused toward concrete resolution of all armed conflict.  The effectiveness of the Military’s collective efforts overseas speaks well for the institutional soul of today’s Armed Forces.  Our values and the laws governing warfare teach us to respect human dignity, maintain our honesty, and do what is right. Adherence to our values distinguishes us from terrorists, insurgents, and other lawless factions. The ultimate success of this Counter-Insurgency Operation depends on maintaining the obligatory value systems in all that we do, and that we continue to occupy the moral high ground, be it with prisoners of war, suspected enemy personnel, or our own countrymen.

The necessity and required outcome of this conflict remain unchanged.  Strong resolute men must remain steadfast in the prosecution of terrorists and insurgent forces and a strong, capable, self-reliant Nation must follow in the wake of fanatical tyranny.  Evil must be eradicated, and ideology must be constrained to lawful and legitimate means of debate.  Free people must be endowed with the choice of personal religious practices, the pursuit of happiness, and the rewards that come with hard work, creative thinking, and personal expressions of excellence.  Coercion, abuse of power, and tyrannical submission of individual rights and liberties cannot go unchecked. 

Yeah, but are our political institutions up to this task?

Our military is...

Spc. Monica Lin Brown

Army Special Monica Lin Brown, serving in Afghanistan, will be the second woman since WWII to receive the Silver Star; the first being Sgt Leigh Ann Hester of Raven 42

Army Spc. Monica Lin Brown saved the lives of fellow soldiers in April 2007 after a roadside bomb tore through a convoy of Humvees in Paktia, Afghanistan.

Brown ran through insurgent gunfire and used her body to shield five wounded comrades as mortars fell less than 100 metres away, the military said....

She was in a four-vehicle convoy patrolling near Jani Kheil, Paktia, on April 25, 2007, when one Humvee hit a bomb.

"We stopped the convoy. I opened up my door and grabbed my aid bag."

As she ran to the burning vehicle, rebels opened fire. All five wounded soldiers had scrambled out.

"I assessed the patients to see how bad they were. ... We were still receiving incoming fire."

...Brown said ammunition going off inside the Humvee sent shrapnel in all directions.

"So we dragged them for 100 or 200 metres, got them away from the Humvee a little bit. I was in a kind of a robot-mode ... getting the guys taken care of."

The army said Brown's "bravery, unselfish actions and medical aid rendered under fire saved the lives of her comrades and represents the finest traditions of heroism in combat.''

Tru dat.