Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell delivered to Congress a threat assessment
Al Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri continue to lead the terror group and focus on their strategic vision of confronting the United States and its allies with mass casualty attacks around the globe, McConnell said. “Although security concerns preclude them from the day-to-day running of the organization, bin Laden and Zawahiri regularly pass inspirational messages and specific operational guidance to their followers through public statements,” he explained.
He noted that there have been “no major attack against the United States or most of our European, Latin American, East Asia allies and partners.”
The retired Navy vice admiral said the fact that there were no attacks was not an accident; rather, U.S. intelligence officials worked with allied nations to unravel terrorist plots, he said. The United States and its allies continued to attack terror groups in the Middle East and Central Asia. Coalition allies in other parts of the world shared intelligence and actively worked against extremists.
"Not an accident" because the United States is being pro-active against the Islamists and not simply treating them as criminals to be arrested after the fact. They are being treated, and respected, as a deadly enemy whose intention is to destroy the United States and Europe.
Attacks worldwide against al Qaeda do take a toll on the terrorists, McConnell said. “The death last week of Abu Layth al-Libi, al Qaeda's charismatic senior military commander and a key link between al Qaeda and its affiliates in North Africa, is the most serious blow to the group’s top leadership since the December 2005 death of then-external operations chief Hamza Rabia,” he said.
Al Qaeda in Iraq suffered major setbacks in its drive to intimidate Iraqis and establish the country as al Qaeda’s base of operations and planning. The group can still mount lethal attacks in Iraq, but it is hurt, McConnell said.
“Hundreds of AQI leadership, operational, media, financial, logistical, weapons, and foreign fighter facilitator cadre have been killed or captured,” he said. “With much of the Sunni population turning against AQI, its maneuver room and ability to operate have been severely constrained.”
The number of al Qaeda attacks in Iraq dropped by more than half by the end of 2007. “We see indications that al Qaeda’s global image is beginning to lose some of its luster; nonetheless, we still face multifaceted terrorist threats,” he said.
Defeating Islamists, and most especially al Qaida is important because of their mythology. As I have pointed out previously
...in order to fight and sustain a religious war, you have to claim that God is on your side. And if God is on your side, then it follows that you will win: No matter the odds against you.
And even more specifically, if you are trying to convince people that blowing up innocent men, women and children is what God wants, against all sensibilities to the contrary, then you have better win to prove that God is on your side...
If the Islamists, the Jihadists, lose their moral authority; if it starts to appear that God is not on their side, then fewer people are going to sign up to kill innocent men, women and children, which is the only real weapon they have.
Every time they fight and lose it undermines their ability to claim that they are doing it for Allah. Because surely if Allah had sanctioned their behavior, they would win.
Pulling out of Iraq would be seen as validation of their argument. Degrading their capability with direct and indirect action everywhere they exist creates doubt in the mind of true-believers as well as, and most importantly, would-be recruits.
But they are a mortal enemy. They are not defeated, and they will adapt.
“While increased security measures at home and abroad have caused al Qaeda to view the West, especially the United States, as a harder target, we have seen an influx of new Western recruits into the tribal areas since mid-2006,” McConnell said. “We assess that al Qaeda’s homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic and infrastructure targets designed to produce mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the population.”
McConnell said conventional explosives probably will be the most probable al Qaeda attack scenario. “That said, al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are attempting to acquire chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons and materials,” he added. “We assess al Qaeda will continue to try to acquire and employ these weapons and materials; some chemical and radiological materials and crude weapons designs are easily accessible, in our judgment.”
The question for you is, which of the candidates for President are more likely to continue to undermine the mythology that supports the Islamists
And which are more likely to enhance it?
