In the runup to her return from self-imposed exile, former Prime Minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto was willing to cut a political deal with President Pervez Musharraf. Even after he suspended the Constitution, she refused to make a complete break. But that has changed.
Pakistan's former prime minister and leader of the largest opposition party, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), Benazir Bhutto, said on Monday that she had ended negotiations with President General Pervez Musharraf.
"We are saying no," to more talks, Bhutto told journalists in the Pakistani city of Lahore. "It is a change from my party's past policy."
Bhutto said that the current state of emergency in the country had made it impossible for any talks to take place on a power-sharing agreement between the two leaders.
It is more than likely her instincts are telling her that aligning herself with Musharraf has become politically untenable. President Bush should follow suit and support the Democratic parties opposed to Musharraf.
It is a definite strategic concern this unraveling of Pakistan. Pakistan not only contains, and in some respects nurtures Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, and the Taliban, but it also is a nuclear power. Allowing those nuclear weapons to get into the hands of Islamists is the nightmare scenario. Knowing which way to break on the political issues in Pakistan is critical to keeping these out of the hands of terrorists.
Musharraf has been an ally in the War Against Islamists, no question about it. But he's gone wobbly.
He suspended the Constitution ostensibly to thwart the threat of the terrorists and not, he claimed, just to maintain power. But it seems all this new-found power is not being put to good use in this regard.
Across much of Pakistan on Monday, the government was firmly in command -- squelching protests, blacking out television stations and picking up dozens more political prisoners to add to the thousands already in jail.
But in vast stretches of the country's rugged and wild northwest -- heartland of the Islamic extremist insurgency -- President Pervez Musharraf's army did not have any more control than it did when the military-led government imposed emergency rule nine days ago. In some areas, it had less.
It seems the only thing his suspension of the Constitution is buying Pakistan is a squelching of political opposition.
President Pervez Musharraf's promise to hunt the Taliban as part of its suspension of the constitution and a virtual state of emergency rings hollow as the Taliban's grip on the northwest Frontier Province tightens. Newsweek reported the Pakistani government has released several senior Taliban commanders captured inside Pakistani territory over the past year. The leaders were among 25 Taliban exchanged for over 200 Pakistani soldiers captured by South Waziristan commander Baitullah Mehsud in late August.
Among those freed from Pakistani jails are Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, Amir Khan Haqqani, two brothers of slain Taliban commander Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Usmani, and Baitullah Mehsud's cousin.
Mullah Obaidullah was the Taliban Defense Minister under during the reign of the Taliban from 1996 until the US toppled the government in the fall of 2001. He was the most senior Taliban figure captured to date and "is considered by American intelligence officials to have been one of the Taliban leaders closest to Osama bin Laden," as well as part of the "inner core of the Taliban leadership around the Mullah Muhammad Omar who are believed to operate from the relative safety of Quetta." Obaidullah was a member of the Taliban's Shura Majlis, or executive council, and was thought to be third in command....
Baitlullah Mehsud, the powerful Taliban commander of South Waziristan who recently fought the Pakistani military to a standstill, demanded an end to military operations as well as the release of the 25 senior Taliban commanders as condition to the ceasefire.
The Pakistani government has caved to the demands of Baitullah. The Taliban leaders have been released, while the government reinstated the 2005 Sara Rogha accord, which prevents the government from operating with no restrictions on Taliban activities inside or outside of Pakistan....
Over 29 Taliban and al Qaeda camps are known to be in operation in both North and South Waziristan alone.
And it is from these camps, protected as they are by the soverignty of Pakistan, that attacks are being launched into Afghanistan against American, NATO, and Afgani troops
Bhutto is a staunch anti-Islamist: being as she's a woman seeking high political office this pretty much goes without saying. But she's also tough and has good political instincts.
As a result, she is now ignoring Musharraf and reaching out to other pro-Democracy parties within Pakistan
Ms Bhutto said she was ready for an alliance with another ex-prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, held telephone talks with former cricket star Imran Khan and agreed with a key Islamist to launch a "joint struggle" against General Musharraf.
Coupled with her call earlier in the day for General Musharraf to quit, they were the first signs Ms Bhutto could unite Pakistan's fractious opposition against a state of emergency imposed by General Musharraf on November 3.
"I would like to consult with all of them, including Nawaz Sharif," Ms Bhutto told reporters by telephone, according to a Pakistan People's Party spokesman holed up with her under house arrest in the eastern city of Lahore.
"I want to build an alliance, a single point agenda for the restoration of democracy," said Ms Bhutto, who is under detention for seven days to stop her leading a protest march.
Her party also confirmed she had spoken by telephone to Qazi Hussain Ahmad, leader of Pakistan's main coalition of radical Islamist parties, as well as to a senior member of Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N party.
She also spoke with the head of a small nationalist ethnic Pashtun party.
"We are trying to go to a point where we evolve a joint strategy for the restoration of the constitution, restoration of the judiciary, freedom of media and free and fair elections," key Bhutto aide Safdar Abbasi told AFP.
It seems that America should follow Bhutto's instincts and support this pro-Democracy coalition. Not only will it enhance our stature in this region, but it is likely the best play to keep the nukes out of the hands of the Islamists.
Musharraf is looking more and more like a losing proposition, but politically and as a bulwark against the Islamists. He may very well precipitate the very nightmare scenario he pretends to be preventing.
Given the information I know, this seems like the right play.
What I don't know is what cards Musharraf has left.
The worst of which would be a poison pill the Administration knows about that we do not.
Regardless, Bush's team is putting pressure on Musharraf
US President George W. Bush wants emergency rule lifted in Pakistan ahead of parliamentary elections, as officials Tuesday said a senior State Department official was preparing to visit Islamabad.
"The president thinks that we need to lift the emergency rule in order to have free and fair elections," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters as Bush returned to Washington from his Texas ranch on Monday.
President Pervez Musharraf must also shed his army uniform "since the president (Bush) thinks you can't be both president and the chief of the army," Perino said.
Bush is sending a special envoy to personally tell Musharraf that Washington wants emergency rule lifted ahead of January elections, The New York Times reported Tuesday.