According to al Qaeda's #2 man, the physician Ayman al-Zawahiri claims that the West is on the doorstep of defeat in Iraq.
"The good omens of the new dawn of victory have begun to loom on the horizon, with Allah's permission and will," he says.
"And the stage preceding victory is normally, in the history of nations, the stage in which there is most seen an increase in conspiracies, plots and inciting of discord in an attempt by the enemy, who has begun to see his defeat approach, to push back and delay the defeat as much as he can."
Clearly referring to Operation Phantom Thunder, a Corps-sized offensive against al Qaeda throughout the Baghdad "belts" including Diyala and Anbar Provinces as well as Baghdad itself, Zawahiri apparently sees this as a sign of imminent collapse.
But the good doctor has made this diagnosis before. In February 2005
"Your new crusade will end, God willing, with the same defeat as its predecessors, but only after you have suffered tens of thousands of dead and the destruction of your economy,"
Still waiting for that to happen. Our economy is at a new high and al Qaeda has lost over 4,000 fighters this year alone, which I might point out is more that the US has lost since the invasion in 2003. And the year ain't over yet; and neither is Operation Phantom Thunder
On the fifth anniversary of the September 11th attacks, Zawahiri said
Western forces in Iraq and Afghanistan are "fighting their last battles", al-Qaida's deputy leader says in a new video apparently timed to coincide with the fifth anniversary of the September 11 attacks.
"You shouldn't bother yourselves with defending your forces in Iraq and Afghanistan because they are doomed to defeat and are all but defeated, fighting their last battles," Ayman al-Zawahiri says in the 76-minute recording.
"Rather, you should reinforce your defences in two regions. The first is the Gulf, from where you will be expelled, God willing, after your defeat in Iraq, at which point your economic ruin will be achieved. The second is Israel, because the jihadi reinforcements are getting closer to it."
It seems the good doctor has either hired Baghdad Bob as his information minister or he knows he has a sympathetic audience in the American Media.
After all, in his letter to Abu Musab al-Zaqawi (then, al Qaeda's top dog in Iraq), it is clear that Zawahiri is relying on being able to recreate the Vietnam Syndrome in order to be victorious
"The aftermath of the collapse of American power in Vietnam," he wrote, "and how they ran and left their agents, is noteworthy. Because of that, we must be ready starting now, before events overtake us, and before we are surprised by the conspiracies of the Americans and the United Nations, and their plans to fill the void behind them."
I expect Zawahiri will continue to forecast the imminent defeat of the West until such time as he is captured or killed.
Or until the Anti-War politicians wrap up our defeat and hand it to him. Maybe for his birthday.