The summary section of the National Intelligence Estimate was declassified and released yesterday. It concludes that the threat from Islamists remains strong, but that the measures taken by the US to improve security, which would include tools like the Patriot Act, have made the US a hard target
We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11.
These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.
But the NIE is concerned that people have forgotten the threat signaled by the attacks on the World Trade Center.
We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane…… as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge. Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities.
It also recognizes that Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf made a strategic error when he agreed to give Waziristan to al Qaeda and the Taliban. The NIE continues
We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.
And it concludes that al Qaeda in Iraq, you know, those people who aren't there, is a threat.
We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland.
In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.
So let's kill 'em in Iraq
