The Bush Administration is about to release evidence of Iranian involvement in destabilizing Iraq
New evidence of Iran's role in Iraq will be made in Baghdad by the chief spokesman for the multinational forces in Iraq, Major General William Caldwell. The Directorate of National Intelligence worked over the weekend to clear new intelligence and information that sources inside the intelligence community said would implicate Iran in deliberately sending particularly lethal improvised explosives to terrorists to kill coalition soldiers...
The decision to go public with new evidence on Iran's role in fomenting Iraq's civil war and in working with terrorists killing American soldiers marks a change in strategy for the Bush administration, which has until now provided scant evidence to the public about Iran's role in the Iraq conflict. Since the president unveiled his new war strategy on January 10, leading Democrats have challenged claims of Iran's role and intentions in the Iraq war.
According to information obtained by Bill Roggio, there is evidence that the attack in Karbala last week, where men disguised as US soldiers abducted and assassinated five US soldiers was planned and executed by the Qods Force branch of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps.
The American Forces Information Service provides the details of the attack in Karbala. Based on the sophisticated nature of the raid, as well as the response, or cryptic non-responses, from multiple military and intelligence sources, this raid appears to have been directed and executed by the Qods Force branch of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps. My sources agreed this is far to sophisticated an operation for the Mahdi Army or Badr Corps, while al-Qaeda in Iraq would have a difficult time mounting such an operation in the Shia south. "The Karbala Government Center raid the other day was a little too professional for JAM [Jaish al-Mahdi, or the Mahdi Army]," according to a military source.
This raid required specific intelligence, in depth training for the agents to pass as American troops, resources to provide for weapons, vehicles, uniforms, identification, radios and other items needed to successfully carry out the mission. Hezbollah's Imad Mugniyah executed a similar attack against Israeli forces on the Lebanese border, which initiated the Hezbollah-Israeli war during the summer of 2006.
And what is the possibility that Iran was also culpable in the failed attempt to kill Shi'ite pilgrims and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani yesterday? Again, Bill Roggio fills us in on the details
Early reports indicated there were both Sunni terrorists and Shia cultist involved in the fighting. "Governor Asaad Abu Gilel as saying that the militants, who included foreign fighters, had arrived in the city disguised as pilgrims in recent days and based themselves in the orchards, which he said had been bought three or four months ago by supporters of Saddam Hussain."
An American military intelligence informed us the early indications are that the Omar Brigade, al-Qaeda in Iraq's unit designated to slaughter Shia, was involved in the fighting. Al-Qaeda in Iraq would have a vested interest in causing mass casualties of Shia during the pilgrimage to Karbala for the festival of Ashura. Over 11,000 Iraqi Army and police have been deployed to Karbala to provide security for the event.
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty reports "one possibility is that the men belong to an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group. If so, they could have been in the vicinity of the Shi’ite holy city of Al-Najaf to launch attacks during celebrations of the Ashura festival... another possibility is that the U.S. and Iraqi troops were fighting a new, messianic Shi’ite militia called the Army of Heaven."
Bill does not conclude that Iran was involved
There is no evidence the Iranians have played a role in the uprising in Najaf
But does note
Cooperation between Shia and Sunni insurgent groups is not a new development in Iraq, as Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and al_Qaeda cooperated during the Fallujah/Najaf uprisings in the spring and summer of 2004. Shia Iran has been supplying the Sunni insurgency, al-Qaeda and Ansar al-Sunnah with weapons and bomb making materials, and is currently sheltering senior al-Qaeda leaders within its borders.
As the fighting raged in Karbala, Iran announced it was shutting down the border crossings into Iraq, ostensibly to "prevent a large number of pilgrims from flocking across the border without 'legal documents.'"
And while at the moment there is no evidence, it is not unreasonable to hold Iran as a suspect.
Whether they were involved in the Ashura plan or not, there is plenty of evidence supporting Iran's direct involvement in attempting to destabilize Iraq. Walid Phares, in commenting on Bush's going-forward plan for Iraq, notes
Perhaps the most surprising to the political elite in this country (US) and in the region, was the clear position towards the Iranian and Syrian regimes and their policies regarding Iraq. While the anti-American camp was beating the drum during the past months, announcing that Washington has completely fallen to the reality of Tehran and Damascus’ “wisdom,” the White House’s new plan shattered these fantasies: no, there won’t be surrender to Ahmedinijad and Assad. Instead the President, naturally and calmly, reconfirmed what military, security and local observers have known all along: Iran and Syria are aiding and abetting the Terror war in Iraq and providing “material support” to the Jihadists. The President vowed the US and its allies would “interrupt and destroy these networks.” This specific announcement is by far the single most important statement. I would even see it as higher strategically than the Baghdad’s surge. For by deterring the two regimes from crumbling the young democracy in Iraq, America will begin seeing and also understanding the outcome of the conflict. The “other steps” announced by Mr. Bush are of the language understood by the Mullahs to the East and the Baathists to the West of Iraq: Deploying a strike force in the Persian Gulf, activating intelligence capacities and installing Patriot systems across from Iran is the only message that would reach the ears of the Pasdarans commanders and get back to Muqtada al Sadr in Karbala. But again, along with these “messages” Washington should be talking to the Iranian opposition as well and at the same time. This is the framework I referred to above: A surge in Baghdad makes sense only if it is part of a surge in Iraq.
And with two Carrier Groups in the Persian Gulf, and another off the coast in Somalia, it seems that message would read loud and clear by Tehran.
