It is becoming clear that the strategy of Thailand's new government to be kinder and gentler to the Islamists in the South is only making things worse.
There were many reason for the military coup that took place in Thailand in September; one of them was that the hard-line the government was taking with Islamic separatists in the South was the wrong tack. When the new government took over, they tried something different.
The prospects of the situation improving seemed much brighter with the coup. Coup leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin promised, consistency in personnel and policies, improved inter-agency coordination and intelligence sharing, ending the culture of impunity of security personnel, a willingness to implement some of the findings of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC), and a desire to improve diplomatic relations with Malaysia. There was also an acknowledgement by the government of the insurgent’s Islamist agenda and demands.
The government of caretaker Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont deserves credit for implementing a swath of new polices to improve relations with the Muslim community: These include the restoration of the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Command (SBPAC) & CPM-43, the dropping of charges against some 58 Tak Bai protestors, a renewed pledge to solve the disappearance of Muslim human rights activist Somchai, which the government now labels “murder,” the abolition of blacklists, and a willingness to implement sharia law. It also included a public apology to the Muslim community for the previous government’s policies:
The military leaders also announced that they were holding secret talks with the “insurgents.” The government announced that the two sides had reached a “Joint Peace and Development Plan for South Thailand,” in which the “insurgents” dropped demand for an independent Islamic state.
Unfortunately, those at the negotiating table did not speak for the Islamists.
Despite these overtures, the violence has continued unabated. In the 60-day period after the coup there were almost 200 violent incidences, and the rate of killing is just under the pre-coup 2006 average of 1.7 people/day. In the two-month period, 91 people were killed, including 5 police and 11 soldiers, and 68 civilians and 232 were wounded, including 52 soldiers and police officers and six monks. There have been 38 bombings and 3 attempted bombings, and 19 arson attacks that destroyed at least 11 schools.
And it seems the new measures have simply allowed the Islamists to consolidate their power.
The terrorists continue to concentrate on suspected pro-government Moslems, non-Moslems and government workers. Most of the mountainous back country villages have been terrorized, and "cleansed" of infidels (non-Moslems) to such an extent, that the terrorists can move about openly in daytime. The terrorists are also getting nastier, as in today's attack, where two teachers were shot, then burned to death on a road. Nearly sixty teachers have been killed down south in the last two years
On December 19th
Another female teacher was killed by Islamic terrorists in the south, prompting the government to promise new security measures for teachers. This has not stopped the exodus of teachers from the south, and the refusal of many teachers from the north to replace them. The Islamic terrorists are succeeding in their effort to destroy education in the south. The Islamic terrorists want only religious schools, which concentrate on memorizing the Koran, plus basic literacy and simple math.
On December 29th, Reuters reported that
110 schools had been hit by arson attacks and 71 teachers and school staff killed in attacks since January 2004.
This on a day when two Buddhist teachers were shot and killed and their bodies burned.
On November 9th
...insurgents executed near-simultaneous bomb attacks on eight car and motorcycle showrooms in downtown Yala, wounding 13 people.
And today there were near simultaneous bomb explosions during New Years celebrations in an area the "separatists" have not attacked before: Bangkok
At least six bomb blasts rocked the Thai capital Bangkok on New Year's Eve, killing at least two people and injuring 12, police said.
The culprits and motive were unknown.
This may not be the work of Islamists; there are at least some powerful people who are against the coup and the new Administration's hesitancy in reinstating democracy.
But if it does turn out to be Islamists, it will herald a new, and more deadly 2007 for Thailand.
