In July of 2001, Russia and China signed a treaty innocuously called "Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation". The treaty encompassed five areas of cooperation
Joint actions to offset a perceived U.S. hegemonism; 2
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Demarcation of the two countries' long-disputed 4,300 km border;
- The rise of militant Islam in Central Asia.
One month earlier, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan created the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which, at the time, was claimed not to be a military alliance; a counter-balance to NATO. But since that time, it looks more like a military alliance than not
Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian military confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say.
The group, which started in 2001 with limited goals of promoting cooperation in former Soviet Central Asia, has evolved rapidly toward a regional security bloc and could soon induct new members such as India, Pakistan, and Iran....
The SCO's swift rise has been fueled by deteriorating security conditions in ex-Soviet Central Asia, as well as a hunger in Moscow and Beijing for a vehicle that could counter US influence in the region.
"Moscow is seeking options to demonstrate - to Washington in the first place - that Russia is still an important player in this area," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a partner of the US bimonthly journal Foreign Affairs. "China's ambitions are growing fast, and it also wants to turn the SCO into something bigger and more effective."
Russian leaders blame the Bush administration, with its emphasis on democracy-building, for recent unrest, including revolution in Kyrgyzstan and a putative Islamist revolt in Uzbekistan. "Washington wants to expand democracy, which it sees as a panacea for all social and geopolitical evils," says Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, which advises the Kremlin. "But it is clear to us that any rapid democratization of these countries (in Central Asia) will lead to chaos."
In Vietnam, when US forces got directly involved in helping the South stay free of Communism, Russia fought a proxy war and managed to get US to withdraw. This was in no small part to to Soviet influence in the US media and anti-war movements.
Later, we did the same to the USSR in Afghanistan, causing the Soviet Bloc to disintigrate.
With the US fighting for the West against Islamists, it seems likely to me that Russia and China are not only not being helpful, they are exacerbating the problem. I believe that what we are seeing yet another war with Communism that uses Islamic radicals as the proxy army.
Consider,
- both Russia and China are blocking strong sanctions with Iran.
- both Russia and China are aiding Iran's nuclear program
- Russia is supplying weapons to both Syria and Iran
- Many anti-War groups today are led by maoist or stalinist organizations
Which brings us to the nomination of Robert Gates to be the Secreatry of Defense. Most are preoccupied with the fact that he has suggested dialog with Syria and Iran to improve security in Iraq. But given the above, I think there was a more compelling reason for Bush to nominate him: he is an expert on Russia. He has a doctorate in Russian and Soviet history from Georgetown University and he spent many years in the CIA as an analyst whose specialty was the Soviet Union.
I think it is unlikely that Bush will negotiate with Syria and Iran for security in Iraq.
I do think, however, that the Bush Administration wants to keep a closer eye on Russia.
The Islamist goal is to cause the destruction of Western Capitalist societies. Attacking its economic base was the reason for picking the World Trade Center.
Oddly enough, Communists want precisely the same thing....
