The Cool Blue Blog

Daily Dish

The 13th seed University of Vermont effected a stunning upset victory last night in the first round of the NCAA Basketball tournament, beating the #4 seeded Syracuse  Orangemen  60-57 in overtime. This is the first time UVM has won an NCAA tournament game ever.

So these Catamounts slayed the Big East champions and busted up plenty of brackets in the process. They were fearless....

They play 5th seeded Michigan on Sunday. Coach and local radio personality Tom Brennen, in classic and classy style gave all the credit to the team:

"It's the biggest win in the history of our school and no one deserves it more than these fellows," Brennan said, his smile as wide as a foul line.

And while it is true that the boys did a great job, a lot of the credit goes to Coach Brennan, a guy who I have met on several occasions. He's the kind of coach you want for your kid; moral, compassionate, witty, and tough but more interested in building quality people than winning games.

But he wins games too.

And despite the fact that he has composed hundreds of awful poems, which he regularly reads on the air, he is a great guy and a great coach and this is a fitting end to a terrific career. For after this tournament, Coach Brennan is retiring.

A bomb exploded in a Christian neighborhood in Beirut, Lebanon. Who did it? Hard to say, but I know who is being blamed: Syria. Certainly it is true that Syria's justification for being in Lebanon in the first place is to control religious warfare in Lebanon, a role they did play during the civil war that took place in the '80s. But now it looks like political opportunism; a way to justify not leaving Lebanon. It's a familiar strategy, one al Qaeda is attempting in Iraq. Attempting with the help of ..... Syria. The pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud has reasonably called for peace, but the Lebanese Nationalist forces are suspicious and one of those leaders, a Christian, has called for Lahoud to resign.

"If a new president is not chosen....the future might be unknown," Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt told followers gathered at his mountain home.

And they have reason to be suspicious. Just recently pro-Syrian political leaders have talked about delaying the elections because they oppose international election supervisors.

The fact of the matter is that only free, fair and transparent elections are going to settle the issue.

The two countries most responsible for Iran's nuclear weapons program, Russia and China, are planning to have joint military exercises. Some see this as practice for an invasion of Taiwan. Moscow and Beijing put a different face on their motives

According to a source in the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Sino-Russian exercises would have an “anti-terrorist orientation” and would be held on the Shandong peninsula.

Uh huh.

Well I say look at this: China, Russia, Iran.

Not good.

Daily Dish

Bob Seger may want to take the Silver Bullet Band to Kathmandu, but I wouldn't recommend you going there without bullets. Back in 1990, Nepal effected democratic and market reforms ending centuries of absolute monarchy. The economy boomed. No fewer than 19 communist parties were created and participated in elections to the parliament. However in 1996, the largest of these, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) felt that they weren't getting their way and decided to start a revolution instead. Their "war of liberation" spread as the "revolution" created economic instability and poverty. On Febuary 1st, the King of Nepal, King Gyanendra, dissolved the Parliament and took absolute control in order, he said, to more effectively deal with the continued violence perpetrated by the Maoists. Unfortunately, it seems, this has only helped the rebellion, not stemmed it. And the UN is now warning that Nepal is sliding towards a humanitarian crisis as the clashes between government forces and Maoists escalate. Nepal's closest neighbor, India, cancelled a planned summit and most believe this was done as a protest for the dissolving of democratic institutions in Nepal. The Bush Administration has also condemned the King's assuming of absolute power even while some Nepalese in the US have asked Bush to support the move.

Meanwhile, the fighting continues.

Is a violent revolution beginning in Iran? The Student Movement Coordination Committee for Democracy in Iran reports that the assets of people closely associated with the autocratic regime as well as those of members of the mercinaries employed by the government to break legs at anti-government demonstrations are being mysteriously attacked.

Another mysterious fire damaged a commercial building located in Eslamshahr which is one of the southern suburbs of Tehran.  The building which is affiliated to rich Bazaris, close to the Islamic regime, was subject to what's believed to be an act of unidentified arsonists.

Several homes belonging to regime's mercenaries were also set on fire during the celebration of the traditional Tchahr-Shanbe Souri and during the riots which rocked this rebellious suburb.

This doesn't sound good.

Terrorists want a place at the political table and if they don't get it, they are threatening to resume attacks on Israel. Abbas has to put his foot down and just start arresting and killing these people if they resist being arrested.

A Dutch businessman goes on trial for selling chemical weapons to Saddam.

Chancellor Schroeder continues to press for more market reforms to relieve the pressure of having an unemployment rate of more than 20% in some areas.

More anti-Jordan protesters fill the streets in Iraq. It appears that Osama bin Laden's support of Jordanian Zarqawi has backfired. Big time.

Daily Dish

When in 2002, France took unilateral military action in the Ivory Coast, no one said a word. Later, they got a UN sanction, retroactively, for intervening there. But things have gotten much worse since then. Now, it seems that France and UN troops are occupying a DMZ trying to hold at bay both government and rebel forces.The rebels are demanding free elections and recently a team of lawyers from South Africa was rushed in to evaluate what legal changes need to be made to the address the rebels demands. Oh good, French and UN soldiers and lawyers. What could go wrong? Well, you got both the rebels and the government on the same side; against the French. Now that's progress.Hey, at least the whole country is united...

Yesterday Israel withdrew from the West Bank town of Jericho and today Palestinians agree to extend the cease-fire. Hamas is still out of step, but at least they're not blowing anybody up.

The UN is doing such a great job of doing nothing in Darfur except observing and reporting. Now they may not even be able to do that as they are threatening to pull out from the region all together.

First Schroeder proposed cuts to the welfare state, now he is proposing cutting taxes on corporations. Socialism takes another hit.

Kateland of The Last Amazon reports that Canada is now recalling all passports of people who claim Jeruselem, Israel as their place of birth.

The Terrorist You Know

Europe is finding out the hard way that they have a problem with people who are deluded into thinking that they represent Islam when they act like terrorists.

Reader Diane Wolff is also a journalist and she has kindly submitted for your perusal this article she wrote for the Orlando Sentinel about Europe and their terrorist problem.

Encounter with Islam

The nexus has given rise to incidents of terrorism, complications in integrating the European Union and a rethinking of foreign policy.

By Diane Wolff
Special to the Sentinel

February 13, 2005

The Europeans have discovered they, too, have a terrorism problem, which is exacerbated by demographics and geography.

Europe is having a new encounter with Islam, in domestic politics and foreign affairs. However, it's not the first; the two have had 13 centuries of ups and downs.

The new European-Islamic nexus has given rise to incidents of terrorism, a shift of some traditional European political parties to the right, complications in integrating the European Union and a re-thinking of foreign policy.

Immediately after Sept. 11, 2001, Europe stood shoulder to shoulder with America.

Time and political differences, including but not limited to disagreement about the war in Iraq, have led to frosty relations between Washington and much of Europe.

The realization is dawning on the members of the European Union that their initial notion that terrorism was only America's problem is wrong. In fact, there now may be more reason for concern in Paris than Philadelphia, Amsterdam than Albany and Bonn than Boston.

Timothy Savage, division chief of the Office of European Analysis at the U.S. State Department, explains the situation well.

"The Islamic challenge that Europe faces today is twofold. Internally, Europe must integrate a ghettoized but rapidly growing Muslim minority that many Europeans view as encroaching on the collective identity and public values of European society. Externally, Europe needs to devise a viable approach to the primarily Muslim-populated volatile states stretching from Casablanca to the Caucasus," he wrote last summer.

After Sept. 11, the thinking on the Continent was that Europeans were tolerant and progressive and Americans were unenlightened. We went after the radicals. They opened their arms to their Mediterranean neighbors. They concluded that we were wrong and they were right.

Daily Dish

As promised, young Iranians celebrated Tchahar-Shanbe Souri (Fire Fiest) in Iran on the 15th. And as expected the Iranian government used violence against them.

Several protesters/celebrators have been killed and hundreds have been injured or arrested following the violent clashes that rocked most Iranian cities, yesterday night, at the occasion of popular riots during the "Pagan" Tchahar-Shanbe Souri (Fire Fiest). These clashes happened as brutal militiamen attacked Iranians who transformed the already hardly tolerated celebration into protest action and show of "un-Islamic" joy. Most areas of the Capital and cities, such as, Esfahan, Mahabad, Shiraz, Rasht, Kermanshah, Babol, Sannandaj, Dezful, Mashad, Ahwaz, Marivan, Khoram-Abad, Zabol, Baneh, Tabriz, Hamedan and Oroomiah (former Rezai-e) were scenes of sometimes unprecedented street fights between the regime forces and groups of Iranians.

In Tehran alone official sources are stating about two deaths in what has been qualified as "incident during non professional work on incendiary devices" "inside a abandoned home in east of the Capital".

More concordant reports are stating about an astonishing use of force in the Capital's areas of Rey, Guisha, Narmak and Reja-i Shahr leading to many injured, arrested and few believed deaths. Other neighborhoods, such as, Shahrak Gharb, Madar Square, Haft-Hose, Gohardasht, Tajrish and Pasdaran were also transformed into unprecedented scenes of apocalypse and giving prelude to what can happen the last night of the rule of Islamic regime during a general uprising.

In Esfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz several demonstrators were seen with broken heads laying in their blood following the brutal assaults of the regime's forces in Tchahar Bagh, Ab-Ressani, Sajad and Azadi (Freedom) avenue....

The celebration was not just that, but it was also a political rally:

Many celebrators were seen shouting slogans against the regime and its leaders, such as, "Marg bar Jomhoori e Eslami" (Down with Islamic Republic), "Marg bar Taleban e Iran" (Down with Taleban), "Toop, Tank, Feshfeshe, Bassiji bayad Koshte She" (Gun, Tank, Fire Cracker, Militia must be killed) and "Referendum, Referendum, in ast Shoar e Mardom" (Referendum, Referendum, this is the people's slogan) by making reference to a genuine election, expressed so many time since three years ago, and after the total fall of the Islamic regime and without giving any chance to some so-called redempted 'former' factions of the regime to surf again over the popular aspiration....

And it seems they are looking to the US for help while deriding the EU:

Other slogans stating about a dangerous level of the popular exasperation, such as, "Bush, Bush, kush? Kush?" (Bush, Bush, Were's He? Were's He?) were also shouted along with some unprecedented public attacks against EU members, such as, France and Germany...

As hundreds of thousands fill the streets in Beirut, as democracy learns to fly in Iraq and Afghanistan, it seems that the people of Iran are determined not to be left behind.

Anti-Democratic forces in Iraq attempt the thwart any attempt for the people there to form a government by the people and for the people. On the opening day of the newly elected Iraqi Assembly, mortars and bombs were used to try to impede the progress being made there. But they were stunningly unsuccessful.And while the new Iraqi congress has to agree on a new government, it's not the problem that some in the media think it is. I would argue that the very fact that they are having trouble agreeing is a good exercise in understanding what it takes to be self-governing with a diverse population. They'll figure it out and the conversation they are having will be valuable to the process of drafting a Constitution. Not to mention the fact that they are attempting to settle their differences through negotiation, not violence. Only the fascists are pursuing violence to meet their ends. Meanwhile, Iraqis are feeling pretty good about the future.

More Iraqis believe their country is headed in the right direction and fewer think it's going wrong than at any time since the U.S. invasion two years ago, according to a new poll.

The poll, by the International Republican Institute (IRI), due to be made public Wednesday, also found that nearly half of Iraqis believe that religion has a special role to play in government.

The survey of 1,967 Iraqis was conducted Feb. 27-March 5, after Iraq held its first free elections in half a century in January. According to the poll, 62% say the country is headed in the right direction and 23% say it is headed in the wrong direction. That is the widest spread recorded in seven polls by the group, says Stuart Krusell, IRI director of operations for Iraq. In September, 45% of Iraqis thought the country was headed in the wrong direction and 42% thought it was headed in the right direction.

Sounds good to me too.

North Korea wants the US to take it back. "It" being the use of the word "tyranny" by the US when referring to the state of affairs in North Korea. And it is saying that it won't play if Bush doesn't apologize. Hey! North Korea! Get over yourself. You think we give a shit that you are throwing a fit? We don't. We also notice that you didn't make this big of a stink when you were referred to as a member of the Axis of Evil. What, you're OK with that? And if you don't want to negotiate, fine. But remember, there are other people in your area who care more about your acting out than we do. Japan for one. And in case you haven't checked lately, they have a pretty significant Navy so I don't think you want to piss them off. Or China either.

Israel turns Jericho over to Palestinian control.

The Vatican doesn't like the Da Vinci Code.I liked most of it, but I thought the end didn't make much sense.

Progress continues to be made in Lebanon as more Syrian Intelligence offices are closed.

Shortly after the agents left, several people entered the compound and raised the Lebanese flag.

An Iwo Jima moment I'm sure.

But as long as Hizbollah is armed and as long as Syria remains in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanese, the US and everyone else should keep the pressure on.

Daily Dish

What is it with the Arab league? What exactly are they about? In Sudan, a new report by the the International Organization for Studying and Debating Stuff but Not Actually Doing Anything Meaningful (aka the United Nations) reports that in the past 18 months, 180,000 (former) residents of Darfur died as the result of hunger and disease. That's 10,000 a month. In addition to those who have died by direct violence as the result of the government's war against the Black Christians who live there. And what has the Arab League done about it? Other than flatly rejecting any sanctions the UN might impose, pretty much nothing. So the question is this: Is the Arab League just as ineffective as the UN and for the same reasons, or does the Arab League implicitly sanction what it is that Sudan is doing in Darfur? Either way an outside observer would not be at fault if they were to conclude the latter.

And it's not just the Arab League. So far only the United States has called whats going on in Darfur what it is: Genocide.

And the UN reports

In contrast to the 410 million dollars pledged for southern Sudan, a total of 56 million dollars had yet been received or committed to relief operations. Donor nations were billed back in October, he said.

So far, only the United States, Britain, the Netherlands and Norway, plus, recently, the European Commission, had responded. "There are 20 donors in the world today and too many are sitting on the fence," he said.

And the fence sitters would include Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, not to mention Syria.

Huge protests, huger than anything the Hizbollah thugs could pull together and, I suspect, huger than anything anyone has seen anywhere, occurred yesterday in Beirut. Some would like to see a relationship between it and the Syrian intelligence forces vacating Beirut, and I suppose there may be some relationship. The problem is, Syria is still in Lebanon. And Hibollah is still carrying guns to the exclusion of all other militias.

But there is no doubt, that demonstrations this massive have got to make everyone think twice about what is going on. Lebanon is a country of 3.5 million people, and it may just be that one third of those turned out yesterday.

Staggering.

The al Qaeda-linked street gang, MS-13, were the subject of a massive, country-wide round up. Can we sweat them for information? Or would that be torture?

The Belmont Club offers some thoughts on the cost of appeasement.

And Arthur Chrenkoff delivers the Good News From Iraq.

Daily Dish

Thousands of anti-Syrian protesters hit the streets again showing that they, at least, have stamina. And reports are that hundreds of thousands came out are similar to reports about what Hizbollah managed to rouse and the new demonstrations appear to be free of coercion, especially since the anti-Syrian folks have no means to coerce nor the organization necessary to bus in bodies as Hizbollah did.There's also the fact that anti-Syrian forces have done it more than once. And while Syria abandons some offices of its intelligence service, most remain in place. Their clever gambit to appear to withdraw from Lebanon fools no one of any importance. Their promise to withdraw all troops and intelligence forces from Lebanon in the next few months now seems to be contingent on Lebanese leaders' forming a new government in coming weeks. But who makes that decision? And more importantly, why should it be Syria that provides the security given that there is a definite conflict of interest involved and everyone knows that Syria has the capability of causing instability there and thereby affect the outcome. How about this: Syria withdraws and let the French handle the security.

Saudi security forces shot and killed a suspected militant and captured another during a clash in Jeddah.

In Iraq, Kurdish and Shiite leaders met today to try to reach a deal to form a coalition government before the parliament meets for the first time.

China's rubber-stamp parliament adopted a law Monday that threatens to attack Taiwan if the island attempts to secede from the mainland, but Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao tried to deflect criticism by emphasizing that a war is "the last thing we wish to see." Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian urged a million people to join a protest of the new anti-secesson laws, but can he get people to really care? I remember back in the bad old days of Vietnam, the South didn't put their heart into fighting off the North, and in many cases collaborated despite seeing US servicemen dying. It was only after the North "won" that people understood the consequences of their decision. Now I'm no expert on Taiwan by any means, but I get the feeling that these people are in pretty much the same mindset. I' hope I'm wrong.

So it's pretty much been admitted that Italy paid a ransom to free the anti-American journalist Giuliana Sgrena and didn't want people to know. But who were they trying to keep it from? Certainly not the terrorists because once the money exchanged hands, every terrorist in the country would know about it putting every Italian in-country at risk. So they had to have been keeping this a secret from coalition members, and their own people. But why do that when it risks having SNAFUs like what happened with Ms Sgrena's extraction? Obviously they were concerned about their reputation.

Which means they knew is was wrong.

Daily Dish

The schizophrenic Iranian government, filled with both reformers and hard-liners (with the hard-liners holding the reigns) continues to contradict itself. One faction says that "Washington is "hallucinating" if it thinks Iran will scrap its nuclear fuel production plans in return for economic incentives, " while President Khatami says "We are ready to cooperate with the world to give more certainty that Iran is not moving toward the creation of nuclear arms." Khatami, of course, is the reformist who stunned the hard-liners by winning the Presidential election in 1997 promising to steer Iran away from a dictatorship and towards a more liberal government that would include a civil society, democracy, transparency, and the rule of law. But in the 8 years since his election, little progress has been made. And while he might refer to his ineffectiveness as being the result of intentional "gradualism", there is no doubt that the hard-liners wield much more control than he and his political allies do.

And impatience with his ability to live up to his promises is not surprising given the length of time he has had to do something.

The heavy handedness of the security forces during a recent celebration of Tchahr Shanbe Souri resulted in a populist, if ineffectual, response. And the unwillingness of the regime to tolerate any type of protest makes violence a predictable result. Iranian women activists (and some male supporters) were beaten when they gathered in support of International Women's Day in Tehran with signs that read things like "No Veil, No Submission." (Wouldn't it be interesting to see supposedly pro Women groups from the US fly themselves to Iran and march in solidarity with Iranian women? Never happen.) Despite this, Iranians are not giving up and there is a planned celebration of Tchahr Shanbe Souri in Tehran on March 15th.

Even more than Iraq, Iran is the remaining linchpin in the Middle East. Not only are they primary exporters of terrorism against Israel in the region, harborers of al Qaeda and its ilk, but they are the focus of both China and Russia's foreign policy interests. And these interests include helping Iran gain military nuclear capabilities. Do these interests correspond with promoting freedom and democracy in the region? Do these interests promote the self determination of the people in the region? In fact they do no such thing. In fact, a democratic regime change in Iran would thwart the forces coalescing there. The fall of the Mullahocrisy in Iran in favor of the types of reforms promised by Khatami almost certainly would end the nuclear dreams of the current group of mad pretend-Mullahs.

With pressure from the US and Europe outside its borders and pressure from reform-minded young people from within, the dictators of Iran are in a race; can they complete the the nuclear weapons program and solidify their power before the government falls to a popular uprising aided by US Foreign Service funds?

How this eventually turns out will effect the destiny of the region and the world for decades to come.

US District Court Judge Rosemary M. Collyer has blocked the release of 13 Yemeni prisoners from Guantánamo Bay, Cuba for fear that they might be tortured and treated badly in their home country.

"We want to find out where they're being sent and ask them if they want to go there," said Barbara Olshansky of the Centre for Constitutional Rights, which is coordinating the legal push.

The ruling is the first on a flurry of petitions filed on behalf of the prisoners, after reports emerged that the Pentagon was seeking to transfer about half of the 540 Guantanamo detainees to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen

But I thought it was the US that was treating Gitmo prisoners badly. I mean, that's what the Centre for Constitutional Rights has claimed in the past. Now they want them to stay? I'm confused....

After promising to allow more people on the Presidential ballot than just his own self, Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak allowed opposition candidate Ayman Nour to be released on bail while he awaits trial on trumped-up charges of "forgery".

"The money was raised within half an hour outside the jail gate," said Mazen Mostafa, a party member, adding that dozens of Mr. Nour's supporters had gathered there.

Guess he's got some supporters.

Syrian troops will be protecting the terrorist camps and exiled Iraqi WMDs in the Bekaa Valley at least until April it seems.

The New York Times, quoting Dr. Sami Al Araji, the deputy minister of industry reported that whole WMD sites were evacuated from Iraq after the US invasion.

"They came in with the cranes … and they depleted the whole sites," Araji said. "They knew what they were doing; they knew what they wanted. This was sophisticated looting."...

Araji added that equipments and materials that could be used in making parts for missiles as well as chemical, biological and nuclear arms were looted from at least eight sites that were the heart of Iraq's dormant program on unconventional weapons.

Imagine that?

It appears that the Arab "Street" and the Western "Street" are in turmoil after the elections in Iraq. However, it seems the turmoil is completely divergent. While the Arab "street" demonstrates for more political power, the Western "street" demonstrates for US to disengage from Lebanon and calls the Iraqi government a puppets.

I spent part of last week ringing up the organizers of the anti-war events with a couple of questions. The first: Would they allow anyone from the newly-elected Iraqi parliament to address the gatherings? The second: Would the marches include expressions of support for the democracy movement in Arab and other Muslim countries, notably Iraq, Lebanon and Syria?

In both cases the answer was a categorical no, accompanied by a torrent of abuse about "all those who try to justify American aggression against Iraq."

The unmasking continues.

Italian journalist Giuliana Sgrena's story continues to fall apart as Italian newspapers begin to admit that the US was not informed of the "rescue" in progress.

But then again, her story only made sense to those who wanted desperately to believe....

 

 

 

Daily Dish

The US says to Europe, "fine, we'll try it your way," and allows that if the contingent of Germany, France and Britain can make a deal with Iran to allow transparent inspections of their nuclear program, the US won't block Iran's entry into the WTO. Claiming there are "ambiguities" on some "main issues", Iran rejected the proposal as expected by anyone not blinded by starry-eyed utopian dreams. Again, the problem is that Iran is not interested in any offers proposed by the West because what they want is precisely what they are pursuing: to become a nation with nuclear weapons. And they don't need to reach the US with the nuclear missiles, all they need to do is be able to reach Saudi Arabia. And Israel. And the Strait of Hormuz. With that capability, they could blackmail their way into the WTO or any other organization they so desire.

With that capability they could destroy Israel with impunity.

Or so they believe.

The problem is that neither the US, nor Europe, will take the chance of a nuclear-capable Iran. It must be obvious to everyone that an Iran capable of controlling the oil flow of the Middle East for their own purposes threatens the economic interests of all nations developed and developing and that's the bottom line.

Iran is playing a dangerous game and their newest move has tipped their hand.

The nations negotiating with Iran are now willing to go to the UN to sanction Iran. And the US position is unchanged with regards to the possibility of a nuclear Iran even if their bargaining position has. And Secretary Rice has reiterated that position.

The problem with UN sanctions, of course, is that both China and Russia have veto power in the Security Council. To the extent that Iran believes they have either Russia or China on their side is the extent to which they may play this right up to the edge.

Certainly much of Iran's nuclear program is being supplied by Russia, so they have an interest in vetoing sanctions. Additionally, Russia has huge oil reserves of its own. Throwing in with Iran may have attractive long-term strategic benefits for Russia by being apart of the new oil cartel which interestingly could include Venezuela. So imagine a future where Iran, controlling all of the Middle Eastern oil, Russia, and Venezuela band together to set prices without those pesky "market forces" interfering with their plan.

Will China make a separate peace with the Cartel? Maybe, but what do they bring to the table since they are dependent on oil? The only card they can play is the threat of taking away by force some of Russia's oil fields.The assessment is that China's dramatic military buildup threatens Taiwan. Which, if I had designs on Russia's Siberian Oil fields that's precisely what I would want everyone to think.The only way China gets to be a player in a world where Iran is a nuclear power is if it has oil to sell or are energy independent. Both of these goals lead directly to Siberia.

The calculus of the oil situation is such that it becomes easy to see why it is neither the US nor Europe can afford to allow Iran to be a nuclear power. Global instability is generally thought of to be a bad thing. Especially when those with the upper hand are not prone to Democratic institutions and are in fact tend, to varying degrees, towards the autocratic and dictatorial

And there is little doubt in my mind, that the US is going to do whatever is necessary to assure it never happens.

The UN claims to be in possession of the secret Syrian withdrawal plan complete with specific timetable. Of course, the UN envoy is not discussing the details with anyone until next week. My guess? It will fall short, again, of what is being demanded. We have to keep in mind the goal of all of this; free and fair elections in May. That means no pressure from Syrian forces, Syrian intelligence agents, or from an armed Hizbollah. The much ballyhooed "withdrawal" of Syria from Lebanon is meaningless unless the above objectives are met, which is precisely what UN Security Council Resolution 1559 was intended to accomplish; Lebanese elections free from intimidation. And it is precisely why the disarmament of Hizbollah was part and parcel of the resolution.

In days gone by, such developments as we have seen would not give us much cause for hope. But things are different today. Not only has Iraq changed the Calculus of the political situation in the Middle East, but the players are different. Bashar Assad is not even a shadow of his father, Hafez in ruthlessness and political savy. A human rights activist based in Damascus, Ammar Abdulhamid, summarizes the situation in Syria using Godfather terms:

"It's a mafia. The capo di tutti capi has died but Michael Corleone [the tough son in the Godfather] is missing and Fredo [the weak son] is in charge."

And by doing so brings into focus not only the political situation in Syria, but the very nature of the reality of Ba'athism; it is plain and simple a criminal organization with its fingers in graft, arms and drug dealing in addition to the political objective of destroying Israel.

And the sooner it falls the better.

To commemorate the anniversary of the March 11th bombings in Madrid, Spain's leading Muslim organization issues a Fatwa against al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden.

"We declare ... that Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda organization, responsible for the horrendous crimes against innocent people who were despicably murdered in the March 11 terrorist attack in Madrid, are outside the parameters of Islam," the commission said.

The commission said the Koran barred Muslims from  committing crimes against innocent people...

"The terrorist acts of Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda organization ... which result in the death of civilians, such as women and children ... are totally prohibited and are the object of strong condemnation within Islam," it said in a statement citing extensively from religious texts.

Amen to that.

Daily Dish

He's Back! He resigned as the Syrian figurehead in Lebanon after massive demonstrations then unresigned after Hizbollah mounted their counter-demonstration.Now former Prime Minister Omar Karami is the Prime Minister once again.With the words "We proved that in parliament and on the street, we are the majority" he attempts to convince everyone that the Lebanese people love their Syrian masters.And he may be right, but only a free and fair election will be able to determine this for sure. The fact that Hizbollah could gather 200 to 500 thousand people, at least some of whom were bussed in for the event, does not prove a majority. But it does show that there is some muscle. For their part, Lebanese Nationalist groups reject Karami's reinstatement and is looking to form their own majority. This will be difficult without new, free elections. Meanwhile Syria makes a show of pulling back troops, there is much to do before the political and military future of Lebanon is settled.

The Belmont Club has some interesting insight into the non-cooperation strategy of the Syrian opposition.

Meanwhile, in Damascus, an anti-Government protest was abandoned when the government shipped in thousands of counter demonstrators.

Hassan Abdel-Azim, speaking for the group behind the rights protest, accused the government of using "totalitarian" tactics to foil the demonstration with the help of a student militia.

The fact that people are thinking about protesting in Syria must be disturbing to Assad.

As it should be....

Ending European support for the Mullahocrisy in Iran was the message that a group of unarmed Iranian exiles attempted to project when they staged a 14 hour hunger strike on a Lufthansa airliner. Which is kina strange when you think about it since most passengers don't eat airline food anyway. But its the thought that counts. They left peacefully and it gave the passengers a chance to get a good bite to eat before their flight.

In Pakistan, a bi-partisan group of <parliamentarians walked out of the session in protest when the government detailed how they helped Iran's nuclear program. And as a result, we now know for sure Iran has centerfuges. Lawmakers called the actions "Irresponsible". Fo' sho'.

The EU has finally found it in their hearts to brand Hizbollah a terrorist organization. Welcome to the world.