The successful elections in Iraq has had repercussions throughout the world and in the region. One of the most obvious manifestations is in Lebanon where the machinations of Syria's political hegemony has been brought to the front burner by the murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Having seen political freedom in Iraq take hold, Lebanese are beginning to view their situation in a different light.
Over by the Martyr's Monument, Lebanese students have built a little tent city and are vowing to stay until Syria's 15,000 troops withdraw. They talk like characters in "Les Miserables," but their revolutionary bravado is the sort of force that can change history. "We have nothing to lose anymore. We want freedom or death," says Indra Hage, a young Lebanese Christian. "We're going to stay here, even if soldiers attack us," says Hadi Abi Almouna, a Druze Muslim. "Freedom needs sacrifices, and we are ready to give them."
Brave words, in a country where dissent has often meant death. "It is the beginning of a new Arab revolution," argues Samir Franjieh, one of the organizers of the opposition. "It's the first time a whole Arab society is seeking change -- Christians and Muslims, men and women, rich and poor...."
"It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," explains Jumblatt. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. "The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."
A people's revolution, eh?
And how will Syria deal with such a popular uprising?
It seems to me that many factions have a lot to lose if Syria is forced to move out of Lebanon.
The Bekaa Valley in Lebanon is used by a number of terrorist organizations under the protection of Syrian troops. Through this arrangement, Iran is able to resupply groups like Hizbollah. If Syria is forced to leave, it is quite possible the new Lebanese government will not be the gracious hosts to these groups that Syria has been. And if all of a sudden the Golan Heights are not so critical to defending Israel, an important part of the equation describing the Palestinian-Israeli security situation changes dramatically for the better.
And we would learn if Saddam's WMDs were in fact transferred to the Bekaa valley. If Syria withdraws, and the weapons are there, Syria only has two options: leave them there and claim innocence or load them on to trucks and transport them back to Syria. If they leave them in place, we will have physical evidence that Saddam did indeed have WMDs and that they were moved to the Bekaa Valley as has been suspected. If they load 'em up and move 'em out, my guess is we'll know about that too and we'll have caught Syria in red handed complicity to deceive the UN. Boy, if only that was a charge you could bring the the International Court, huh? Complicity to Deceive the UN.
The Bush Administration has wanted Syria out of Lebanon for all of the reasons described above.
If Syrian troops act aggressively to put down a popular uprising, the US will likely have world wide support in defending the Lebanese with military force affording the President a chance at payback for the Syrian supported terrorist activity in Iraq. And such a move would be just another event to embolden the pro-Democracy forces in Iran to face down the mullahocrisy when elections are held next month.
Either way, by force or by pressure, Syria will lose a lot.
So it may turn out that the success of the elections in Iraq will force Syria out of the terror game while Bush will score another run.
Wouldn't that be something...
