The Cool Blue Blog

Last ditch effort

The US military has announced that not only is Iran aiding the Shi'ite militias in Iraq, but their Lebanese surrogate, Hezbollah, is also participating

Iraqis are receiving the training at camps operated by the Quds Force, Air Force Col. Donald Bacon told the Associated Press. "We have multiple detainees who state Lebanese Hezbollah are providing training to Iraqis in Iranian IRGC-QF training camps near Tehran," said Bacon, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad. (The Quds Force is also known as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force, or IRGC-QF. Al-Quds is the Arabic name for Jerusalem.)

In the past, Iran's participation has also been noted on many occasions. In a News Briefing with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff two weeks ago, Navy Adm. Mike Mullen was quite clear on this

...on Iran, I've been clear lately that I'm extremely concerned about what I believe to be an increasingly lethal and malign influence by that government and the Qods Force in particular in Iraq and throughout the Middle East. I believe recent events, especially the Basra operation, have revealed just how much and just how far Iran is reaching into Iraq to foment instability. Their support to criminal groups in the form of munitions and training, as well as other assistance they are providing and the attacks they are encouraging, continues to kill coalition and Iraqi personnel. The Iranian government pledged to halt such activities some months ago. It's plainly obvious they have not. Indeed, they seem to have gone the other way.

Iran, of course, denies such involvement while Mark Kukis and Abigail Hauslohne writing for TIME Magazine attempt to sow doubts as well

...the U.S. allegations appear to be based on speculation, spurred by the appearance about a year ago of a new breed of roadside bomb in Iraq. Explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, proved effective at piercing American armor by firing a concave copper disc from a makeshift cannon, which transformed the slug midair into a molten jet of super-heated metal. Accusations that Iran was shipping the things into Iraq grew louder as U.S. casualties from the weapon rose. But no concrete evidence has emerged in public that Iran was behind the weapons. U.S. officials have revealed no captured shipments of such devices and offered no other proof.

Instead, the Americans argued their case publicly with deductive reasoning: the copper slugs used in EFPs had to be precisely tooled with a heavy press in order to work properly, they said; no such heavy presses were in operation in Iraq, according to the Americans, therefore the slugs had to have been machined in Iran and moved into Iraq. It is, however, not impossible that such heavy presses may well be operating in Iraq. Three major cities in southern Iraq (Basra, Karbala and Najaf) have gone without a significant U.S. military presence for more than a year. These cities, which U.S. officials believe form hubs for the flow of arms into Baghdad, may indeed have such presses.

And the Iraqi Government seems reluctant to outright blame their neighbor, and some in the US media take this as yet another opportunity to discern ulterior motives is the US Government's claims against Iran.

Back in February of 2007, the US Military put on display for the first time evidence of the Iranian-made EFPs found in Iraq.

Regardless, the US and Iraqi combat operations in Sadr City and Basra aimed at destroying the primary Iranian-backed militia continues, unabated, now entering its 5th week.

The leader of the Shi'ite militia, Muqtada al-Sadi has tried threats and negotiation to stop the decimation of his force; while remaining in Iran for the past year, all to no avail.

Now, in a last ditch effort to preserve the Shi'a insurgency, Iran itself is trying to get the operation halted.

As American strikes on Shiite fighters in Baghdad have widened, Iran has suspended talks with the United States on Iraqi security, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry on Monday citing the continued offensive as the reason...

“The focus of discussions with the U.S. is Iraq’s security and stability,” said Mohammad Ali Hosseini, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry in Tehran, according to IRNA, the official Iranian news agency.

“We are witnessing indiscriminate bombardment of Iraqi residential areas by the U.S. occupying forces,” Mr. Hosseini told reporters at his weekly news conference.

But if they are not involved as they say, why does Iran care so much about these militias? It's not as if the Government were Sunni's trying to destroy Shi'as; no, the Government is mostly Shi'a and trying to assert itself. Isn't the point of "security talks" to find ways to increase the integrity of the Iraqi Government? It certainly should not focus on anti-Government forces, unless, of course, this is Iran's hidden agenda.

And it's not like most Shi'a support these militias

Above all, Hassan and his neighborhood watchmen do not like the Mahdi Army.

“Originally, the Jaish al Mahdi [Mahdi Army] in our area used to deceive people by using the name of the religion to do their purposes,” said Dhia, Hassan’s executive officer. “They were all corrupted. They have history in crime, robberies, murders, rapes, and all kinds of bad things. They even reached the level of kidnapping people and demanding ransoms just because they have money. It didn’t matter if he is Shia or Sunni; just because he has money. They gave a bad reputation for Islam.”

American officials assert that the final factor that has improved security is the citizenry’s fatigue with violence and the militias.

“They’re still intimidated by [the Mahdi Army], but they’re tired of them,” said Thornburg.

In the past the Mahdi Army commanded local support because of the need for security in a vacuum and intimidation tactics. But as security improved and other forces are gaining prominence, support for the Mahdi militia in Rusafa is evaporating.

But Iran had to know that once al Qaida had been dealt with, that we would come after them. Perhaps they thought they would do better then they have.

They were wrong.

Diminishing returns

The destruction and elimination of Iran's proxy force in Iraq continues as US and Iraqi forces systematically disassemble the Mahdi "Army" in the Sadr City section of Baghdad.

Yesterday

A four-hour battle Tuesday between U.S. soldiers and Shiite militiamen left at least 28 Iraqis dead in the capital's Sadr City neighborhood, making it one of the bloodiest days in a month of sustained street fighting...

The battle Tuesday erupted as U.S. forces tried to evacuate a soldier injured by small-arms fire about 9:30 a.m., according to the U.S. military. During the evacuation, the troops were attacked with roadside bombs, as well as rocket-propelled grenades and small-arms fire from houses, storefronts, alleyways and rooftops, said Lt. Col. Steve Stover, a U.S. military spokesman.

...U.S. soldiers responded by firing rockets armed with high-explosive, 200-pound warheads, killing 28 fighters, Stover said. In a separate incident in Sadr City, a fixed-wing aircraft dropped a bomb at 5:15 p.m. that killed two fighters firing mortars at a joint U.S.-Iraqi outpost, the U.S. military said....

U.S. officials emphasized that U.S. troops responded only after they were attacked and that it was the fault of the militiamen if there were civilian casualties. "The sole burden of responsibility lies on the shoulders of the militants who care nothing for the Iraqi people," Stover said in an e-mail.

He said the militiamen purposely attack from buildings and alleyways in densely populated areas, hoping to protect themselves by hiding among civilians. "What does that say about the enemy?" Stover said. "He is heartless and evil."

...U.S. and Iraqi troops are fighting together to clear the southern portion of Sadr City, where militia fighters have launched their rocket and mortar attacks.

Lackeys for the Iranian backed militia of Moqtada al-Sadr complain that US forces are indiscriminately shooting up that place

"Sadr City is under the American hammer and nobody is monitoring it," said Leewa Smeisim, the head of the Sadr movement's political bureau. "Eighty percent of the military operations are targeting innocents, because the Americans want to make people turn against the Mahdi Army so they can enter the city and control it. Nobody is safe in Sadr City, neither women nor children."

True enough; no one is safe because the Mahdi's doesn't care who gets killed so long as it isn't them. They are fighting for their very existence. As Bill Roggio reports, the US Patrol was ambushed and a soldier wounded

During the evacuation, Mahdi Army fighters triggered three roadside bombs and fired rocket propelled grenades and machineguns at the US patrol. Five more soldiers were wounded in the attacks and two vehicles were damaged. None of the soldiers' injuries are reported as life-threatening.

During the battle, US soldiers from the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division directed "a combination of weapon systems available," including munitions from a Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, at Mahdi Army fighters "firing from buildings, alleyways and rooftops" in the dense urban areas of Sadr City. "The enemy continues to show little regard for innocent civilians, as they fire their weapons from within houses, alleyways, and rooftops upon our Soldiers," said Colonel Allen Batschelet, the chief of staff for Multinational Division Baghdad.

The Mahdi Army took heavy casualties during the single engagement. "A total of at least 28 militants were killed in the four-hour engagement," Multinational Forces Baghdad reported.

Stover refuted reports that US forces used aircraft to attack civilians in Sadr City. "Our Soldiers have a right to defend ourselves," Stover said. "This engagement began as we were evacuating a US Soldier shot while on patrol in south Sadr City and continued as militants continued engaging US Soldiers. We are NOT targeting law-abiding civilians. Those targeted were firing weapons at US Soldiers."

Laughingly, Moqtada al-Sadr says that such aggressive action on the part of the Maliki Government, who has ordered the Shi'ite militas disbanded one way or another, threatens the Sadr-ordered "cease-fire".

The Mahdi Army is flush with Iranian Arms, and the Shi'ite militias are the tool of the Iranian Government in Iraq: A tool being used to attempt to undermine the Iraqi Government and the US efforts there.

But with each successful operation, an effort which began a month ago in Basra, with each death of a Mahdi soldier, with each loss of a Mahdi stronghold, Iranian influence is diminishing.

And the influence of the Iraqi people strengthens.

Attacking oil

Our enemies know that the life-blood of our economy and our society is oil. And it is no coincidence that as a result, oil prices have now risen to highs that were a short time ago, unimaginable. And there is no doubt that the Islamists have a strategy in place for making this situation as bad as possible.

Back in 2005, Christopher Dickey writing for Newsweek wrote

"They're watching Katrina. They're watching Rita.  They're watching what it's doing to the United States," says former CIA agent Robert Baer, who has written extensively on Saudi Arabia's vulnerabilities.  A few ruptured pipes could be repaired quickly, says Baer, but a concerted attack at several points could bring on the kind of nightmare scenario that U.S. officials have been dreading since the Reagan years, pushing oil prices up from their current prices in the range of $60 to $70 a barrel to well over $100 for weeks or even months.

That same year

Al-Qaida's deputy leader called for attacks against Gulf oil facilities and urged insurgent groups in Iraq to unite to drive out American forces, according to a videotape posted on the Internet Wednesday.

There were attempted attacks on Saudi Oil fields and more recently Nigeria's oil fields are under constant attack.

World oil prices yesterday hit a record of $117.40 a barrel following militants attacks on pipelines in Nigeria...

The militant group behind the attack who claimed that they have launched two more attacks on oil pipelines yesterday says they are doing that to stop injustice to the region but the governor of Rivers State,Rotimi Amaechi, had, at a Niger Delta oil security forum in Abuja, debunked this claim by the militants saying that they are only self seeking criminals who are into purely economic venture for themselves.

The groups perpetrating these attacks are mostly Nationalists, but radical Islamists are looking to support them as a way of furthering their own goals

Although the majority of Muslims live in the northern region of Nigeria, the presence of Islamic extremism in the country presents an unsettling possibility that the extremist movement could reach the Niger Delta. If it does, there’s a strong possibility that the MEND may form a temporary alliance with Islamic radicals, if only to receive logistical support or training. This temporary union would most likely take the form of an objective-oriented alignment between radical Muslims and the MEND.

It has long been a goal of al-Qaeda to damage American economic power by attacking oil facilities and targets. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross notedin his article “Al-Qaeda’s Oil Weapon” that in a December, 2004 audiotape, Osama bin Laden stated that “one of the main causes for our enemies' gaining hegemony over our country is their stealing our oil; therefore, you should make every effort in your power to stop the greatest theft in history of the natural resources of both present and future generations.” Moreover, Ayman al-Zawahiri gave an interview in 2005 where he called for the mujahideen to “focus their attacks on the oil wells stolen from the Muslims, because most of the revenues of this oil go to the enemies of Islam.”

There can be little doubt that recent attacks on oil tankers were perpetrated by Islamic extremists.

March 24th

Suspected militants in Pakistan have blown up 36 oil tankers that supply fuel to U.S.-led forces in neighboring Afghanistan.

Pakistani officials Monday said the attackers set off two bombs near the trucks, triggering fires and explosions Sunday night in the Khyber tribal district. At least 70 people were wounded.

More than 80 oil tankers bound for Afghanistan were parked in the area when the explosion happened.

Three days ago

Heavily armed pirates Monday attacked and damaged a huge oil tanker off the Somali coast using machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, a Malaysian-based maritime watchdog said...

"Pirates on five speed boats attacked the tanker, the size of a football field. It was a night raid. A missile-like rocket was launched at the ship. Initial reports said the ship suffered some damage," he said.

"I believe the Somali pirates could have used rocket-propelled grenades and machine gun fire on the tanker with the aim to board and possibly hijack her," Choong said.

"But the tanker increased speed and managed to prevent the pirates from boarding and taking control of the oil tanker," he added...

The waters off Nigeria and Somalia are the world's most dangerous hotspots for seafarers, with pirate attacks increasing globally in the first quarter of this year, the IMB said Wednesday.

Two days ago

...off the coast of Yemen, a Japanese tanker was hit by a rocket. Meanwhile, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta warned that it would intensify attacks on Shell pipelines.

In fact, the latest ICC Commercial Crime Services Weekly Piracy Report notes in addition to the above incidents

16.04.2008: 0640 UTC: 14:02.0N-050:35.9E: Gulf of Aden.
A tanker underway was approached and trailed by two, 15-meter long boats. One boat had three persons in it and had a yellow hull. The other boat had five persons in it and had a white hull. Crew alerted and all anti piracy, preventive measures enforced.  Ship took evasive manoeuvres.  The two suspicious boats moved away and headed in a southwesterly direction.  Ship reported to a coalition warship in the area.  When warship arrived in the area, the suspicious boats disappeared....

15.04.2008: 0600 UTC: 14:35.8N - 050:55.7E, Gulf of Aden.
Three speedboats approached a LPG tanker underway. The boats crossed the bow of the tanker several times. Master altered course and contacted coalition warship in the vicinity. After five minutes the boats moved away and stopped 2.5nm from the tanker.

14.04.2008: 1622 UTC: 15:17N - 052:23E, Gulf of Aden.
Four speedboats approached a tanker underway. At 3nm master altered course and the boats moved away.

And that's just so far this month.

It is clear that the strategic imperative of the US needs to be less reliance on Foreign Oil. Alternative energy sources and more fuel efficient cars are fine and will eventually help.

But not today.

More nuclear power plants are required and they will help.

But not today.

More drilling in ANWAR and off our coasts could have helped today, but Democrats and other opponents prevented that from happening back in 2005, the same year al Qeda was announcing their anti-oil strategy.

Roger Hedgcock

After the Democrats victory in 2006, the Carter mentality took over. Oil drilling was out, big oil was evil, higher taxes the remedy for greed, and conservation and "alternatives" were in. I paid $4.05 per gallon for my last fill up. Is it too low yet?

...In the Gulf of Mexico, Jack No. 2 well documented massive oil reserves in U.S. waters similar in scope to these Brazilian fields. The U.S. reaction? No more drilling there. Instead, the nearby Cubans (aided by the oil-thirsty Chinese) will drill in international waters in the same field....

Last year, Congress even forbid the purchase by the U.S. Navy of this Canadian oil because of the "damage" the extraction of the oil did to the planet.

When you go to the gas pump and the $4 gas becomes $5 and then $10 per gallon, remember this is a self-inflicted price brought to you by the Carterite Democrats in Congress. The ghost of Reagan pleads with us to drill the oil literally bubbling up under our feet and shatter OPEC once more.

It seems, it's not just Islamic extremists who are attacking our oil supplies

Maliki's failure

News that Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki was defeated by the pro-Iranian Mahdi Army is lost on the residents of Basra

Three weeks after Iraqi troops swarmed into the southern city of Basra to take on armed militiamen who had overrun the streets, many residents say they feel safer and that their lives have improved.

The fierce fighting which marked the first week of Operation Sawlat al-Fursan (Charge of the Knights) has given way to slower, more focused house-by-house searches by Iraqi troops, which led on Monday to the freeing of an abducted British journalist.

Residents say the streets have been cleared of gunmen, markets have reopened, basic services have been resumed and a measure of normality has returned to the oil-rich city.

The port of Umm Qasr is in the hands of the Iraqi forces who wrested control of the facility from Shiite militiamen, and according to the British military it is operational once again.

After the gunfight, the militia's leader Muqtada al-Sadr graciously offered conditions for a cease-fire

Just as the new Iraqi forces began to arrive in Basrah and US and British forces were gearing up to augment the Iraqi military, Muqtada al Sadr, under orders from Iran’s Qods Force, called for his fighters to withdraw from the streets. Sadr issued a nine-point list of demands, which included that operations cease.

All nine points were rejected and the Iraqi Army and security forces remain in control of the city

...the city is flooded with troops, innumerable checkpoints constantly snarl the traffic, residents are scared to go out at night despite the curfew being relaxed, and the sound of sporadic gunfire can still be heard.

An AFP correspondent said three northwestern neighbourhoods once under the firm control of the Mahdi Army militia of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr -- Al-Hayaniyah, Khamsamile and Garma -- are now encircled by Iraqi troops who are carrying out door-to-door searches.

Two other neighbourhoods once dominated by the Mahdi Army, Al-Qiblah in the southwest and Al-Taymiyyah in the centre, have been cleared of weaponry and many people have been arrested, military officials say.

Residents expressed relief at the improved security.

The performance of the Iraqi Army was mixed, and a number of Iraqi soldier and policemen were fired. But that just serves to strengthen, not weaken these organizations. And Maliki isn't stopping there. My favorite crew of soldiers, the 1st Battailion, 14th Infantry Regiment is stryking at the Madhi Army's home base in the Sadr City section of Baghdad. They are working with the Iraqi Army, again, with mixed results.

A company of Iraqi soldiers abandoned their positions on Tuesday night in Sadr City, defying American soldiers who implored them to hold the line against the Shiite militias.

The retreat left a crucial stretch of road on the front lines undefended for hours and led to a tense series of exchanges between American soldiers and about 50 Iraqi troops who were fleeing.

Capt. Logan Veath, the commander of Company B, the U.S. unit on the scene, pleaded with the Iraqi major who was leading his troops away from the Sadr City fight, urging him to return to the front.

"If you turn around and go back up the street those soldiers will follow you," Veath said. "If you tuck tail and cowardly run away they will follow up that way, too."

Veath's pleas failed...

But other, less cowardly elements of the IA filled in

...senior American and Iraqi commanders mounted an urgent effort to regain the lost ground. An elite Iraqi unit was rushed in and with the support of the Americans began to fight its way north...

Senior Iraqi commanders hurried to the scene and a special Iraqi reconnaissance unit was ordered to advance up the road. With the help of an American bomb-clearing unit, Stryker vehicles and attack helicopters, the Iraqis rumbled north, spraying rounds as they went. According to the last reports monitored by Company B, the Iraqis were stopped short by several roadside bombs, and planned to resume the push in daylight.

Regardless, if the defeat of Sadr's Mahdi Army which is seeminly inevitable at this point is Maliki's failure, then what is it for al-Sadr?

And Iran....

 

Too late to stop now

Muqtada al-Sadr, who only weeks ago when the uprising in Bashra began was being painted as the victor in his struggle with the Iraqi Government by the media, not only has had his "peace offering" rejected, but the Iraqi Government is more determined than ever to root out his militia.

Iraqi forces will battle militiamen in Sadr City relentlessly until the sprawling Shiite district of east Baghdad has been cleared of gunmen, government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh vowed on Sunday.

"We will continue until we secure Sadr City. We will not come out, we will not give up until the people of Sadr City have a normal life," Dabbagh told AFP.

"(The security forces) will do what they have to do to secure the area. I can't tell you how many days or how many months but they will not come out until they have secured Sadr City."

And the fighting continued in the Sadr City area of Baghdad even while Basra is being put back together

Days after intense fighting, and the call to peace from Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr March 30, Multi-National Division – Baghdad Soldiers patrol the outskirts of Sadr City, a district of Baghdad, ensuring the safety of the city’s residents. 

Sadr City has been the backdrop of many conflicts for Coalition forces since the beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. The city is the poorest of all the Bagdad districts and has historically been a safe haven for terrorists.

The Soldiers from Company A and a platoon from Company B, 1st Battalion, 21st Infantry Regiment, 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment, attached to 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, MND-B are tired, dirty, and work 24-hours a day with only cat naps to sustain them, but they relentlessly take to the streets in their mission to drive terrorists out of the area.

What began as a 96-hour tasking on March 26 turned into an open ended mission.

Capt. Scott Bailey, Company A commander, said the mission in support of combat operations was a success.

“We had some significant contact when we first arrived,” said Bailey, a Running Springs, Calif., native, “but we planned good company attacks and now it is pretty quiet here.”

       

Sadr himself, after being snubbed in his efforts to save his "army" is now being belligerent

Radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr says he will  not enter any political process that would allow U.S.  forces to remain in Iraq.

Al-Sadr also denounces U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates  as a terrorist and says he will never work with Iraq's  occupiers.

But Secretary Gates recognizes Sadr's role in Iraq even if Sadr himself won't admit it

On Friday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said al-Sadr was a significant political player due to his large following in Iraq's Shiite community. Gates also called on al-Sadr to take part in the political process.

But when the last of Sadr's militants are disarmed, all that will be left are the politicians and Sadr will have no choice but to become one himself, or leave the stage altogether.

My guess is, he can not resist having an audience.

Cancelled

After getting spanked in Basrah by Iraqi forces and Sadr City by American forces, Iranian proxy Muqtada al-Sadr sued for peace.

Just as the new Iraqi forces began to arrive in Basrah and US and British forces were gearing up to augment the Iraqi military, Muqtada al Sadr, under orders from Iran’s Qods Force, called for his fighters to withdraw from the streets. Sadr issued a nine-point list of demands, which included that operations cease.

But al Sadr's demands were snubbed

Maliki refused and Iraqi and US forces continued to move into Basrah and conduct pinpoint raids against Shia terror groups. More than 200 Mahdi Army fighters were killed, 700 were wounded, and 300 captured during the six days of fighting in Basrah alone.

What's even worse for al Sadr, and by extension Iran, is that Maliki then introduced legislation to bar all political parties that refused to disband their militias.

“A decision was taken that they no longer have a right to participate in the political process or take part in the upcoming elections unless they end the Mehdi Army,” CNN quoted Al Maliki as saying on Monday.

The first step will be adding language to a draft election bill banning parties that operate militias from fielding candidates in provincial balloting this fall, the officials and lawmakers said. The government intends to send the draft to parliament within days and hopes to win approval within weeks.

All of the major political players moved to support Makiki

Iraq's major Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties have closed ranks to force anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to disband his Mahdi Army militia or leave politics, lawmakers and officials involved in the effort said Sunday....

"We, the Sadrists, are in a predicament," lawmaker Hassan al-Rubaie said Sunday. "Even the blocs that had in the past supported us are now against us and we cannot stop them from taking action against us in parliament."

Al-Sadr controls 30 of the 275 parliament seats, a substantial figure but not enough to block legislation.

Al Sadr tried a political counter-offensive, a Million Man Anti-American March, then backed down

Moqtada Al Sadr has called off a mass rally in Baghdad planned for Wednesday, his aides said on Tuesday, as clashes continued in the conflict-ridden region.

Al Sadr’s followers had been blocked by Iraqi security forces from traveling to Baghdad from the Shiite areas where he garners great support as well.

Al Sadr had called for a "million-strong" protest to mark the fifth anniversary of the capture of Baghdad by US troops, in what was seen as a show of force in his conflict with the government, but two aides in the Shiite leaders office said the rally had been cancelled.

But even as he is being countered on both the political and military fronts, he still plays to the US Press by talking tough

Anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is demanding the Iraqi government protect the public from "the booby traps and American militias" or he may formally end the freeze he imposed seven months ago on his Mahdi Army fighters.

The statement was being circulated to the press and public Tuesday as U.S. and Iraqi troops stepped up their pressure on Shiite militiamen in their Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City.

His only remaining hope is with the Press who continue to spin this as a victory for al Sadr and a defeat for Maliki. But the fact is that it is Sadr that keeps retreating, not Maliki

Maliki has said the military will continue to operate against the Mahdi Army, and US and Iraqi forces have kept Sadr City and Shula in Baghdad under curfew. US and Iraqi forces fought pitched battles in Sadr City over the weekend. At least nine Mahdi Army fighters were killed by US helicopters after attacking Iraqi patrols in the city. Twenty Iraqis were reported killed and more than 50 wounded during the fighting.

Maliki has said the military would continue to operate in Sadr City and other Mahdi Army strongholds in Baghdad. "We have opened the door for confrontation, a real confrontation with these gangs, and we will not stop until we are in full control of these areas," Maliki said on April 7.

Maliki's assault on Basrah, Operation Knights' Assault, did point out deficiencies in the Iraqi Army: There were defections, they moved without adequate preparation, and they lacked battlefield intelligence; but it also revealed that the Iraqi security forces are getting better and stronger.

They are moving in the right direction.

And at the moment, that direction is to cancel al Sadr's ticket.

Fleeing Iraq

In yet another message from the Caveman Osama bin Laden, the Master of Misogyny, is heard condemning any talks of peace between Israel and "Palestine". What's more, he tells those who aspire to freeing Palestine to go to Iraq

Such a Palestinian fight in Iraq should be "concentrated on and supported by all Muslims, specially from neighboring countries," bin Laden added and also called on people of Syria, Lebanon Jordan and Saudi Arabia to "help in support of their mujahedeen brothers in Iraq, which is the greatest opportunity and the biggest task."

"The nearest field of jihad today to support our people in Palestine is the Iraqi field," bin Laden said.

"We tell our brothers in Palestine who could not join the jihad in the land of Al-Quds, to get rid of illusions of political parties and groups which are mired in trickery of the blasphemous democracy and to take their positions among the ranks of the mujahideen in Iraq," he said.

The US elections are coming and an Iraq equivalent of a Tet Offesive is in dire need if the Jihadists are going to win.

The biggest problem with this is that all the potential suicide bombers are fleeing Iraq

A growing number of foreign fighters are leaving or attempting to flee Iraq as U.S. and Iraqi forces have weakened al-Qaeda and forced its members from former strongholds, U.S. military officials say.

The trend reflects a broad disenchantment among foreign fighters, particularly since al-Qaeda has lost sanctuaries in parts of Baghdad and Anbar, a Sunni province west of the capital, U.S. military intelligence officials say.

"They're being told in their countries of origin by facilitators that, 'Hey, we're basically winning the war against the apostates,' " said Brig. Gen. Michael Flynn, intelligence director for Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East. "They go there and find out it's not quite the case."

What's more, word is getting back and al Qaeda recruiting stations throughout Africa are feeling the pinch

No one there wants to admit that al Qaeda has been beaten in Iraq, but the more first-hand accounts that show up, the more convincing the stories are. The truth is this. The al Qaeda volunteers have long been enticed by the prospect of killing American soldiers. That rarely happens, and survivor accounts always make that point, and the fact that al Qaeda is mostly killing Iraqis. Last year, most of the Sunni Arabs turned on al Qaeda, and this has been most difficult for the al Qaeda recruiters to deal with....

For most of the last four years, the al Qaeda volunteers would go to Iraq and "die a glorious death." Now the trip tends to end in despair and humiliation. The word is getting around, and the recruiters don't like it.

Regardless, the headlines in the news today is that the 4000th American soldier has died in Iraq.

The grim milestone comes less than a week after the fifth anniversary of the start of the war.

But where are all the Jihadists whose only martial skill is to blow themselves up going? Hard so say, but this might be a clue

Pakistan is not only among the countries with the highest incidence of terrorism but it also tops the list of suicide bombings, leaving Afghanistan and Iraq behind during the first three months of 2008.

During this period, Pakistan experienced eighteen suicide attacks in which more than 250 people died. Whereas in both war-ridden countries, Afghanistan and Iraq, had a fewer number of suicide attacks.

Iraq experienced thirteen suicide bombings which claimed 274 lives while 15 people died in three suicide attacks in Afghanistan during the first three months of 2008.

In 2007, Iraq topped the list of bombings and fatalities among these three countries with more than 150 suicide attacks. Afghanistan had more than 100 suicide attacks and Pakistan came third with 56 attacks but had more fatalities than that of Afghanistan.

Let's not forget, Pakistan actually possesses nuclear weapons...

Actionable Intelligence

According to the Associated Press

A missile strike near the Afghan border destroyed the house of a suspected militant leader today, killing at least 20 people, witnesses and state-run Pakistan Television said.

Seven missiles were fired in the strike in the tribal area of South Waziristan, the television report said. The Pakistani military said five or six explosions were heard near Wana, the main town in South Waziristan.

Local tribesman Rahim Khan told the Associated Press missiles were fired by an unmanned drone. At least two hit and destroyed the home of a local militant leader and Taliban sympathizer who goes by the single name Noorullah, Khan said.

Only U.S.-led coalition forces are known to have unmanned drones operating in the region. Coalition forces based in neighboring Afghanistan have also launched attacks inside the Pakistani border in the past.

Khan said the house — a huge, fortress-like compound — was known as a hub for visiting foreign militants.

Back on March 12th, there was another powerful hit

A decisive Coalition strike against a high-level meeting of Taliban-linked insurgents on March 12 took place one and a half kilometers inside Pakistani territory, US military officials have confirmed to The Long War Journal. Several precision-guided munitions struck a compound owned by a senior member of the Haqqani Network, a powerful Taliban splinter group that is based in the Pakistani tribal state of North Waziristan. The strike occurred shortly after multiple intelligence sources confirmed the presence of the group’s upper echelon inside the compound. Several other high-level Haqqani commanders, including Sirajjudin Haqqani, had planned to attend this meeting, intelligence sources confirmed.

At 9:40 PM local time, US officials declared the group posed an imminent threat to forces inside Afghanistan and the call to strike the compound was made. After the orders were given to launch a coordinated strike, fixed-wing and rotary-wing air support along with Predator surveillance and reconnaissance began scanning likely insurgent attack positions inside Afghanistan. US military officials confirmed no women or children had been seen in the targeted North Waziristan compound or in any structures near it over the last five days.

Nearly four hours later, a salvo of indirect fire targeting the compound hit its mark, completely obliterating the building and killing an unknown number of people inside of it. Several insurgents working sentry posts around the compound were observed by aerial surveillance leaving the area on foot. Initial intelligence reports on March 12 indicated three “high-level Haqqani network commanders” were killed and that “many” Chechen fighters also died in the blast.

And in February

Pakistani and US intelligence are attempting to sort out the names of the al Qaeda and Taliban operatives killed in yesterday's airstrike in Azam Warzak, South Waziristan. Initial reports indicated Arabs and fighters from Central Asia were killed in the operation. One report indicates an "al Qaeda fugitive from Egypt" was among those killed, sparking rumors that Ayman al Zawahiri was the target of the strike.

South Waziristan Taliban commander Mullah Nazir, who is often characterized as a "pro-government" Taliban leader, appears to be the center of the storm. "Sources said that the militants belonged to the Abu Hamza group whose leader was said to be a follower of local militant commander Maulvi Nazir," Dawn reported. The attack occurred at the home of Shero Wazir, a follower of Nazir "who had rented it out to an Arab."

"A large number of Arabs and other foreigners had been living and doing business in the area for years with local tribal names," sources told Dawn. Nazir denied foreign al Qaeda were present in his territory, and instead claimed Afghans were occupying the home.

Back in August of '07, Barack Obama said that if he were President

"If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President [Pervez] Musharraf won't act, we will,"

I guess that means he will be praising Bush any moment now....

Desperate in Iraq

As the election season begins to get into full swing, a new poll shows that America is optimistic about Iraq

American public support for the military effort in Iraq has reached a high point unseen since the summer of 2006, a development that promises to reshape the political landscape.

According to late February polling conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 53 percent of Americans — a slim majority — now believe “the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals” in Iraq. That figure is up from 42 percent in September 2007.

The percentage of those who believe the war in Iraq is going “very well” or “fairly well” is also up, from 30 percent in February 2007 to 48 percent today.

Polls also indicate, as a result, that the economy has replaced Iraq as the most pressing issues to voters.

This is bad news for al-Qaida in Iraq. They want the election be be about Iraq and they want the pro-war candidate to lose. But it is hard when things are going so badly for them.

al-Qaeda commander in northern Iraq Abu-Turab Al-Jaza'iri gave an interview to the daily newspaper Al-'Arab. He had a lot to say about the current situation in Iraq

Asked about Al-Qaeda's position in Iraq, with reference to the U.S. announcement that it had been paralyzed, Al-Jaza'iri replied: "…[The Islamic Republic of Iraq] is alive, striking, bombing, and planning to attack various military targets belonging to the Crusaders and to betrayers of Islam, i.e. the Shi'ites and Kurds who have joined the occupier…

"It is true that we have lost several cities and have been forced to withdraw from others, after a large number of [Sunni] tribal leaders betrayed Islam and when their tribe members joined forces against us. However, we are still fighting, and the 'paralysis' mentioned by the Crusaders is true only for some of the regions. [Besides,] it is common knowledge that any war always involves advance and retreat, so that [even] in those regions I wouldn't call our position 'paralysis,' but rather 'the [changing] conditions of the war.'"

Al-Jaza'iri added: "…I do not want to paint a false picture: Our position is very difficult, but we are fighting, and will continue to do so…"

But they have plans to make Iraq the top story for the election yet again

On the change in Al-Qaeda's strategy and the continuation of attacks, Al-Jaza'iri said: "It is clear that the strategy [of capturing cities and turning them into Al-Qaeda bases] has failed, so today we are fighting a guerilla war, or, as some call it, 'street fighting.' The efficacy of this [strategy] has been proven in various contexts. We have been instructed to focus our attacks on targets that are strategically and morally important to our enemies, on the eve of the U.S. election campaign."

Yes; al Qaida is very aware of the elections in the US and they know the only way they will win is via the media and public opinion

Are insurgents in Iraq emboldened by voices in the news media expressing dissent or calling for troop withdrawals from Iraq? The short answer, according to a pair of Harvard economists, is yes…

The paper “Is There an ‘Emboldenment’ Effect in Iraq? Evidence From the Insurgency in Iraq” concludes the following:

* In the short term, there is a small but measurable cost to open public debate in the form of higher attacks against Iraqi and American targets.

* In periods immediately after a spike in “antiresolve” statements in the American media, the level of insurgent attacks increases between 7 and 10 percent.

* Insurgent organizations are strategic actors, meaning that whatever their motivations, religious or ideological, they will respond to incentives and disincentives.

Al Qaida is very aware of these facts as well:

[Abu-Turab Al-Jaza'iri] continued: "...It is the type of attacks and the way they are planned that will be changed. Accordingly, we will be focusing on operations that cause the maximum pain and bewilderment to the enemy. This [shift] will open a new page in the fighting, which you will notice on the fifth anniversary of the occupation of Iraq..."

Addressing Iraq's Sunnis, Al-Jaza'iri said: "The next few months will prove decisive, and by Allah! We have prepared for this - we have humiliated the Crusaders, and have made their blood flow in the streets... And what is to come will be even worse and more bitter. Therefore, I say to those who claim that we have failed, or are paralyzed...: You will receive our answer in the next few weeks..."

That interview was on February 12th. In the last week or so we have seen some increase in attacks. A car bomb on March 13th in a commercial district of central Baghdad killed 13 and wounded 57. Last Thursday, two massive bombs killed 68 people in Baghdad's Karradah neighborhood. On March 3, two car bombings killed 24 people in the capital. Two days ago three American soldiers were killed in a roadside bombing north of Baghdad on Monday, bringing to eight the number of troops who died that day. The last time so many U.S. military personnel were killed in Iraq was Sept. 10, when 10 died.

The U.S. military says al-Qaeda is attempting to score mass-casualty attacks to divert attention and resources away from the northern city of Mosul. The U.S. military is pressing an offensive there in what it describes as al-Qaeda's last urban stronghold.

That and to get back in the news and make Iraq a top issue in the elections once again.

But coalition forces continue to do damage to al Qaida

According to Bill Roggio coalition forces have killed or captured a number of top leaders as part of their assault on the last remaining stronghold in Iraq: Mosul

• Abu Yasir al Saudi: Also known as Jar Allah, Yasir entered Iraq in August 2007 and rose through the ranks to lead al Qaeda operations in southeastern Mosul. He was killed in an airstrike along with Hajji Hamdan in Mosul on Feb. 27. He trained and fought in Afghanistan prior to entering Iraq.

• Hajji Hamdan: He led al Qaeda's anti-aircraft teams in Mosul and the surrounding areas. He was killed in an airstrike along with Abu Yasir al Saudi in Mosul on Feb. 27. Hamdan was also a Saudi national.

• Abu Salim: An al Qaeda cell leader in Mosul who coordinated the movement of foreign terrorists into the Mosul region. He was killed on an unspecified date inside Mosul. Salim was also a Saudi national.

• Manhal Fadil Salih Ahmad: An al Qaeda cell leader in Abu Yasir al Saudi's network in southeastern Mosul behind attacks on US and Iraqi forces. Ahmad was captured on an unspecified date.

• Nawaf Latfi Rida Jarrah: The commander of Ansar al Islam's network in Mosul. He is behind attacks on US and Iraqi forces. Jarrah was captured on an unspecified date. Ansar al Islam is also known as Ansar al Sunnah, and has its roots in the Kurdish regions. Abu Abdullah al Hassan bin Mahmoud, the leader of Ansar al Islam, has close ties to Osama bin Laden. The terror group adheres to al Qaeda's radical Salafi ideology. Military commander Abu Abdullah al Shafi has admitted to carrying out operations with al Qaeda. Ansar al Islam has refused to subordinate itself to al Qaeda in Iraq due to issues with al Qaeda in Iraq's foreign leadership, several US military intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal.

• Ammar Rashid Barbuti Hassan: The emir of al Qaeda in Tikrit. Hassan also facilitated the movement of foreign terrorists into the region as well as made and transported weapons for attacks against US and Iraqi forces. Hassan was captured on an unspecified date.

• Fannr Mubarak Muhammad Farhan: An al Qaeda foreign terrorist and weapons facilitator, trainer, and jailer in Tikrit. He was captured in Tikrit.

• Najm Abdallah Abbas Mahdi: An al Qaeda cell leader that coordinated and carried out car bomb attacks and assassinations in Baghdad. He also moved weapons and explosives into southern Baghdad province. Mahdi was captured in Baghdad on an unspecified date.

• Jasim Abdallah Salih Shibil: Al Qaeda's leader in Sharqat. He had previously operated in Bayji. Shibil was captured in Sharqat on an unspecified date.

• Rushdi Hamid Shihab Ahmad: Al Qaeda's military leader for the Karkh district in Baghdad behind car bomb attacks in western and southern Baghdad. Ahmad was captured in Baghdad on an unspecified date.

• Abu Hassan: Al Qaeda’s deputy leader for Diyala province who led the regional car bomb network. Hassan was killed in Baqubah on an unspecified date.

This is al Qaida's Tet Offensive. Can they win by losing like the North Vietnamese did?

It all depends on our focus and resolve.

Quarterly report

Iraq Report Cites Security Gains, Need for Political, Economic Progress

Wednesday, 12 March 2008 By Donna Miles
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON — The latest quarterly report on the situation in Iraq notes continued security improvements and limited but important political, economic and diplomatic progress that must expand to preserve fragile security gains. 

The Defense Department released its “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” report today, the latest in quarterly reports to Congress, covering the period from December to February. 

The report notes that violence is down throughout much of Iraq. Deaths from ethno-sectarian violence are down 90 percent, and civilian and coalition deaths by more than 70 percent since the June report. 

The bulls-eye for attacks has shifted from Anbar province, which has seen a dramatic 90 percent drop in violence since January, to Ninewa and Diyala provinces, the report notes. 

It cites a variety of factors contributing to the drop in violence: the coalition’s focus on securing the population; progress against al Qaeda in Iraq and other extremists and criminal groups; and growing rejection of these groups by the Iraqi people, among them. 

The report also points to the strength of the tribal “awakening” and “Sons of Iraq” movements working to stop violence, limitations on counter-Iraqi meddling by Iran, a crackdown on foreign-fighter networks, and Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr’s ceasefire order to his followers as helping reduce violence. 

Meanwhile, Iraqi security forces continue making gains, gradually assuming more responsibility for maintaining law and order and promoting stability, the report says. It credits coalition assistance with enabling the Iraqi Defense Ministry to generate 135 army battalions that are conducting operations at varying capability levels. Another 37 combat battalions and two special operations battalions are planned or have started to form. 

The Iraqi police are making headway, too, with Iraq’s Interior Ministry expanding its training facilities from four to 17 over the past year and in the midst of implementing its first annual strategic plan. 

As a side benefit of their improved capabilities, both the Defense and Interior ministries are beginning to coordinate better, creating a synergy that’s enabling the Iraqi government its first opportunity to conduct long-term planning for developing its security forces, the report notes. 

The report also identifies progress on the political, economic and diplomatic fronts. New strides have been taken in reconciliation at every level, and the Iraqi economy is growing. Long-time, sustained progress, it said, will depend on Iraq’s ability to address the complex issues associated with key political and economic objectives. 

“Iraq has seen important security gains in recent months. However, these security gains cannot be taken for granted, and there is tough, challenging work ahead,” the report concludes. “Further progress will depend on the continued ability of Iraqi leaders to capitalize on the hard-fought gains achieved by the coalition and Iraqi forces and other courageous members of Iraqi society who are dedicated to peace.”

The full report issued to Congress can be found here(pdf)