Iraq negotiations

Iraq has been talking about a timeline for US withdrawal.

Iraq's prime minister said Monday his country is now proposing an interim deal with the United States on the presence of American troops instead of a more formal agreement — and wants to include a timetable for a U.S. withdrawal.

But what is really going on here?

Clearly there are some factions within Iraq that want the US to leave. These include those aligned with Iran and those aligned with al Qaida, though the latter is probably insignificant.

And as with any population, the people are likely weary of hosting foreign troops. So it is a political issue and elections are coming up.

But the way things are being portrayed, it sounds as if Iraq wants to kick the US out but Bush doesn't want to. I don't think this is accurate.

First, there's this:

Some type of agreement is needed to keep U.S. troops in Iraq after a U.N. mandate expires at year's end. But many Iraqi lawmakers had criticized the government's attempt to negotiate a formal status of forces agreement, worried that U.S. demands would threaten the country's sovereignty.

So some type of arrangement is needed to keep the US in Iraq, not the other way around. Supporting this

"We'd all like to see U.S. troops get out of here at some point in time," [Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff] said. "However, from a military perspective I need the laws and the regulations and the agreements from the government of Iraq in order to continue operations beyond the 31st of December of this year."

Again, without an agreement, the US is going to leave, Iraq is not kicking us out.

"I don't think Maliki is very keen to set a timetable for withdrawal," said Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq expert at the International Crisis Group. "They (the govt) still know very well how much U.S. support they need for military operations."

And CNN is reporting

A deadline should be set for the withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces from Iraq, and the pullout could be done by 2011, an Iraqi government spokesman said Tuesday.

Ali al-Dabbagh said any timetable would depend on "conditions and the circumstances that the country would be undergoing." But he said a pullout within "three, four or five" years was possible.

"It can be 2011 or 2012," al-Dabbagh said. "We don't have a specific date in mind, but we need to agree on the principle of setting a deadline."

2011 doesn't conform with the "kicking us out" scenario. And as far as Bush is concerned

President George W. Bush has kept quiet.

Which is because negotiations are on-going.

What appears to be going on is that we are negotiating with Iraq about the conditions for keeping troops in Iraq, not really when they leave. We want to have clear rules of engagement, understandings about who prosecutes Americans, especially American soldiers for criminal acts, and matters such as this.

I think the US is more than willing to leave only when Iraq is stable, but we will leave before then if the proper conditions do not exist to maintain our forces.

I think that is what is going on here

UPDATE: Ed Morrissey has some thoughts you should read