The Institutional Media is currently aflush with stories about a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released to the President last month. Quotes from Harry (we've lost) Reid are much repeated
Senator Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada and the Senate majority leader, portrayed the assessment as “directly challenging some of this administration’s alarming rhetoric about the threat posed by Iran” and called for enhanced diplomatic efforts toward Tehran.
Not trusting anything that Senator Reid concludes, and little that the Institutional Media concludes, I investigated the report for myself, and I found, of course, that Harry is again wrong.
What did the report say?
• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.)
• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
• We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.
• Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously.
So what we find is that the consensus is that Iran halted the development of a nuclear weapon back around the time that we invaded Iraq. I wonder how many deem that a coincidence? I don't.
I think it was cause and effect, and no negotiating was involved.
The consensus is also that the development was halted for at least a few years. And most importantly, there is not a consensus that Iran's nuclear weapons program remains quiescent.
Now if I recall correctly, it took a year or so in Iraq before Democrats began calling for a pullout. Do you think that the lack of a consistent voice of resolve had anything to do with Tehran's second thoughts with regards to their weapons program?
But let's assume that the program is still on hiatus. Senator Reid thinks that now is the time for diplomacy.
Reid said he hoped the White House would undertake "a diplomatic surge" to engage with Iran.
But it must be clear even to the dense Senator from Nevada that it wasn't negotiation that got Iran to halt it weapons program in the first place.
It was the demonstrated fact that we were willing and able to take out an enemy dictator in less than a month that likely figured more into their political calculus.
Further, I would point out to the Senator that the US does engage in talks with Tehran, and has repeatedly told the Iranian government that normalized relations with the US is always possible once they become transparent with respect to their nuclear dreams. And the Bush Administration is even willing to let the IAEA be the arbiter of that assessment. But as of today, the IAEA is not satisfied.
Visiting International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said here Monday the body hoped that Iran continues to tackle its nuclear issue transparently to boost international confidence in this.
ElBaradei told the media that the IAEA is continuing to investigate whether Iran's nuclear program is peaceful or not, and that despite the progress in IAEA-Iran cooperation, much work needs to be done to resolve the nuclear issue.
The UN nuclear watchdog, in its latest report on the Iranian nuclear issue, said Iran was cooperating but also pointed out that Tehran was still pressing ahead with uranium enrichment work.
Make no mistake, there is no reason for Iran to not be transparent on this issue, unless of course they want people to believe they are constructing a nuclear weapon: Or are. And until they are transparent, we should not consider that they have abandoned their nuclear weapons program because a mistake in the wrong direction will cost alot of people their lives.
Oh, and one more thing
The AP reports Democrats "did not hesitate to suggest an Iran-Iraq comparison." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Democrats had requested the new Iran assessment "so that the administration could not rush this Congress and the country to another war based on flawed intelligence."
Why is it that Senator Reid and the Democrats have more confidence in this NIE than it did in the pre-war Iraq NIE?
Perhaps because the most recent NIE contains some conclusions they can spin to represent the conclusion they like.
