Baqouba: The warning

Rowan Scarborough, writing in the Washington Examiner today, says that Diyala province gives us a glimpse of the future of Iraq if we do not stay and fix it.

Army Gen. George Casey in 2005 judged the mixed Sunni-Shiite city of 300,000 as a prototype for how to methodically disengage from Iraq. He withdrew all but a brigade, backfilling security with Iraqi soldiers and police.

“Because of that success, we felt as a coalition that we could withdraw our forces and allow the Iraqis to take over,” said Army Brig. Gen. Dana Pittard, who commanded troops that year in Diyala province, where Baquba is located. “I believe that was way too soon."

After the February 2006 al Qaeda bombing of a Shiite mosque in Samarra, sectarian violence broke out in many parts of Iraq. Al Qaeda terrorists, their safe havens disrupted in al Anbar province, moved east to Baquba. Iraqi troops were unable, or unwilling, to stop them.

Recently, with the launch of Operation Arrowhead Ripper, US and Iraqi forces launched a Division-sized effort to take back the province and it's capitol, Baqouba.

Petraeus’ deputy, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, vowed that Americans would not have to liberate the city again.

Pittard, now charged with training Iraqi soldiers, revisited Baquba last week after the battle.

“I nearly shed a tear when I saw Baquba today,” he told reporters. “The markets aren’t up. The projects that we’d spent so much time on together with the Iraqi government are now in many places in shambles.”

The lesson, he said, was clear. “Do not move our force structure down too quickly. Do not draw down too quickly when we think there’s a glimmer of success.”

As a case study, Anbar Province represents what we can achieve if we stay.

I say let's replicate Anbar in Diyala, not Diyala in Iraq because one way or another, we're gonna be in Iraq.

Either we stay now and finish the job or we come back later and finish the job.

But if we have to come back, we'll also have to explain to the Iraqis why we left them to Islamists and thugs in the first place.